The chart on the left illustrates the level of the 2- and 10-year U.S. Treasury real yields. As real yields matter more to the real economy, investors watch these bonds closely for a signal of oncoming recession. The most recent recession was an exception given it was triggered by a pandemic, rather than an economic or financial market event. Nonetheless, this illustrates that interest rates are still relatively low and could provide room for monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve to curb inflationary pressure.

On the right, we have the breakeven yield and real yield. The 10-year breakeven yield reading can be used to show what the market expects inflation to be in the next 10 years. Central banks sometimes take this reading into account to gauge market expectation when considering policy shifts and interest rate moves will have a number of implications for how asset prices move.