On this page, we look at the shape of the U.S. Treasury curve. Traditionally, a yield curve inversion, with 2-year yield higher than 10-year yield, has been a accurate predictor of recession. However, this forecasting power has come into question given central banks' quantitative easing distorting the government bond market. Moreover, a curve inversion does not imply imminent recession or bear market, as shown in the table.