This page focuses on probabilities of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months and next 24 months that are reflected by market variables such as the 10y-2y, 10y-3m yield spread as well as the U.S. financial conditions. As the chart shows, market expectations of a recession in the next 12 months remains relatively low. It picks up more over the next 24 months but overall the probability of recession is still below historical averages. Historically, where it is been more concerning is when market expectations of recession rise to the 80-90% level and today we are not close to those concerning levels yet.