On the left, the chart shows the real GDP growth for key economies. The timeframe focuses on the path to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic for these regions using forecasts from J.P. Morgan Economic Research. China has made an early start to this recovery in 2020 but it has since decelerated due to policy normalization and cooling property market. The U.S. is in the middle of a strong recovery now, helped by the aggressive fiscal stimulus. The eurozone was on a path of recovery until the Russia-Ukraine conflict threatening weaker growth and higher inflation in the region.

On the right, the chart shows the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index, which measures the degree to which economic data is either beating or missing economists' forecasts, with a negative reading occurring when recent reports have missed in aggregate and vice versa. This index is not an absolute measure of growth and it more reflects how economic data is progressing relative to consensus forecasts.