Themes and implications from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly
What are the bright spots in fixed income?
In this paper, Rupert Brindley discusses why the concept of the forward rate of interest is central to fixed income investing, and how it informs long-term forecasting processes.
We may not be outright US dollar bulls, but fundamentals and quantitative valuation factors both suggest that investors are currently too negative on the currency.
Why the US dollar may not be as overvalued as you think
Core bond yields have pushed higher since the end of October. Is the move warranted by a shift in the fundamental picture, and where could we go from here?
As an increasing number of high yield corporates run into trouble we question whether the rise in corporate distress is a signal for more caution, or if lower rated credits now look more attractive at improved valuations.
Valuations for high quality credit may seem slightly stretched in the context of outperformance so far this year, but with various catalysts ahead, we believe the asset class will remain in favour.
Emerging market debt is underpinned by a solid fundamental backdrop, but the local index is at all-time tights. A differentiated approach seems warranted.