Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
Dovish central banks, strong fundamentals and an improved outlook for China suggest that all stars are aligned for emerging markets. How long can the year-to-date rally continue?
An already accommodative European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets with an even more dovish stance at its 7 March meeting—positive news for European credit.
The 2019 rally is underpinned by progress on the fundamental issues that rattled markets at the back end of last year. But given the strength of the rebound, how much longer can it continue?
The S&P 500 could hit 10,000 by the mid-2030s
The year started with global macro data and quantitative valuations moving in opposite directions. Can this trend continue, or will one side give way?
China’s monetary and fiscal efforts to manoeuvre a soft landing and cope with pressure from increased trade tensions are beginning to pay off. What are the broader implications?
While weaker headline earnings growth in future quarters could unsettle investors, many underlying factors suggest corporate health remains strong. What is the full story for investment grade credit?
While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
Does the recent sell-off for risk assets mean the end of the cycle is nigh, or is there value to be found for investors willing to buck the trend?