LTCMA 2019 Theme: The evolution of market structure. Managing illiquidity risk across public and private markets.
The US recovery is now the longest on record. Nobody knows exactly how much longer this expansion will last.
Given our view that the global economy is just as likely to contract as expand over the next three-to-six months, is it now time to position fixed income portfolios more defensively?
Investment grade and high yield credit in emerging markets have delivered divergent performance over the summer. Could this trend reverse, or is investor caution warranted in the high yield space?
With the European Central Bank (ECB) set to resume quantitative easing, can European high yield spreads return to their lows of the last time around?
A slew of fundamental developments over the week suggests the macroeconomic backdrop continues to deteriorate, and yet bond markets are still generating strong returns across not only safe havens but also risk assets. Can this momentum persist into Sept.
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
US Economy Health Check chart book
Emerging market (EM) central banks are following their developed market peers with easier monetary policy. What are the implications for EM debt?