LTCMA 2019 illustrated infographic dealing with upward drift in government debt.
Developed market governments aren���t tackling high public debt levels, dating back to the global financial crisis. Will high debt to GDP lead to political pressure on central banks to keep rates low?
Managing illiquidity risk across public and private markets
A broad overview of our 2019 assumptions
Recessions are milder and less frequent, while recoveries are weaker. The business cycle has not been eliminated, but perhaps it has been tamed.
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree���which we deem moderate���of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
J.P. Morgan 2019 LTCMA Volatility Assumptions
Cyclically lower, structurally unchanged
In an environment already characterized by low inflation and low interest rates, monetary stimulus will likely continue to be relatively ineffective.
This executive summary gives a broad overview of our 2018 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.