Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has led the way with its recent interest rate cut. As we head towards the end of the cycle, other developed market central banks could be expected to follow.
The potential political, macro and credit risks insurers may want to address in 2019.
Trade rhetoric is dominating news flow, weighing on risk assets. What could be the implications for US growth and inflation, and how is the outlook reflected in valuations?
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China���s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs
Despite the recent resurgence of growth worries, we maintain the view we expressed in February that Chinese growth will accelerate this year. This should be supportive for fixed income risk assets, especially if higher growth feeds through to other region
Central banks across the globe recalibrated their policy stance in the first week of May, making it clear that inflation is not the sole driver of their decisions. What does this suggest for the future direction of monetary policy?
Credit markets have enjoyed a strong march upwards, supported by robust technicals and a broadly positive fundamental backdrop. With issuance set to pick up, could now be the time to take some chips off the table?
The S&P 500 could hit 10,000 by the mid-2030s
An improved macroeconomic backdrop continues to support hard currency emerging market (EM) debt, which has outperformed local currency EM debt this year. However, is there now room for EM currencies to take off?