The US recovery is now the longest on record. Nobody knows exactly how much longer this expansion will last.
J.P. Morgan 2019 LTCMA Macroeconomic Assumptions
J.P. Morgan 2019 LTCMA Alternative Strategy Assumptions
J.P. Morgan 2019 LTCMA Volatility Assumptions
LTCMA 2019 Theme: Surviving the short term to thrive in the long term. Building investor resilience in a downturn.
Trade policy is of first-order importance in a more connected world, and markets have been reacting nervously to U.S. trade disputes.
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
Developed market governments aren’t tackling high public debt levels, dating back to the global financial crisis. Will high debt to GDP lead to political pressure on central banks to keep rates low?