Implications for insurance capital requirements
The Bank of Japan has reacted to a persistently flat yield curve As demand for duration sendsby adjusting its Rinban operations and by signalling that a potential rate cut is around the corner. But will these attempts to steepen the curve be sustainable?
In this paper, we assess the potential risks associated with such a strategy by stressing capital requirements using spread-implied ratings.
Small businesses in the US are becoming more cautious about the economic outlook – the National Federation of Independent Business’ (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.3 points to 101.8 in September.
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The current U.S. earnings growth downcycle has been largely consistent with the recent deterioration in macroeconomic momentum.
While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.