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STABLE FORECASTS OF MODERATE GROWTH AND INFLATION

IN BRIEF

  • This year’s edition of our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs) makes only marginal changes to the forecasts for GDP growth and inflation that underlie each asset class outlook.
  • Our modestly lower developed market (DM) growth projections stand below the average growth rate of the past 10 years in every region except the euro area. We expect weak labor force growth, though we could see a possible uplift in productivity.
  • Emerging market (EM) economies will continue to outgrow their DM counterparts, though we are trimming several EM GDP forecasts this year, most notably China.
  • We anticipate fairly steady inflation at the global level, with central banks likely falling short in lifting inflation back to official targets. We leave unchanged our U.S. CPI forecast.

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Our 2020 assumptions anticipate slow real GDP growth globally; global growth assumptions are little changed from last year at the aggregate level, with most developed-market projections stable.

MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (%)
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Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; estimates as of September 30, 2019.
* Emerging markets aggregate derived from nine-country sample
 

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Examine our return projections by major asset class, their building blocks and the thinking behind the numbers.
 
 
 
 
 


2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

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