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Explore our latest thinking on recent market developments


By Pierre-Yves Bareau
2018 was largely a US exceptionalism story, with the US economy enjoying above- trend growth even as recoveries elsewhere faded. The resulting environment of rising core rates, tighter financial conditions and US dollar strength was unfavourable for emerging markets.
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Factor Views 1Q 2019

By Yazann Romahi, Garrett Norman
Factors remained stable despite a tumultuous quarter for risk assets. Though 2018 was broadly disappointing, we see potential catalysts in place across the equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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2018 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

By John Bilton, Dr. David Kelly
The 2018 edition of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions draws on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide. Refined and expanded over 22 years, our in-depth, proprietary process provides 10- to 15-year risk and return projections for more than 50 strategy and asset classes.
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Eye on the Market: Annual Energy Edition

By Michael Cembalest
Michael Cembalest provides an overview of key topics covered in his 2017 Energy Publication and their potential impact on global markets.
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Defining reflation, gauging momentum

By George Iwanicki
We believe that global reflation is predominantly a growth (rather than inflation) acceleration story. Emerging markets are broadly participating, and importantly the EM earnings cycle has finally turned positive. Risks to this view remain— China growth peaking, a possible "last phase" of USD strength, or a capping of positive earnings estimate revisions (given higher implied growth in current projections). Still, we are optimistic that the turn in momentum can drive additional performance for the asset class, particularly given that valuations are not yet at levels that challenge this improved momentum backdrop.
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Emerging Market Debt: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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Investment Professionals
Dr. David Kelly
Chief Global Strategist and Head of Global Market Insights Strategy
Michael Cembalest
Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy
John Bilton
Head of Global Multi-Asset Strategy
Yazann Romahi
Ph.D., CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Quantitative Beta Strategies

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