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The 2018 edition of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions draws on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide. Refined and expanded over 22 years, our in-depth, proprietary process provides 10- to 15-year risk and return projections for more than 50 strategy and asset classes.

We also explore compelling themes, delving into the maturity of the business cycle and the interplay of the cyclical and secular factors influencing long-term investment.

Investors and advisors depend on our projections to inform their strategic asset allocations. The assumptions are at the core of our own approach to building strong portfolio solutions aligned with clients’ investment needs.

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Themes

In five articles, take a deep dive into issues likely to have a profound and protracted impact on the global investment landscape.

Technology, productivity and the labor force >
The impact of global aging >
Pension investment strategy >
The future path of Chinese interest rates >
U.S. dollar forecast >

 

Assumptions

Examine our return projections by major asset class their building blocks and the thinking behind the numbers.

Macroeconomic >
Fixed income >
Equity market >
Alternative strategy >
Currency exchange rate >
Volatility >
 

Assumptions Matrices

Our expectations for returns, volatilities and correlations, arranged in an easy-to-reference matrix format. Matrices are available in 13 base currencies, now including the Chinese renminbi for the first time.

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Long-term investment returns: Secular optimism, cyclical realism.
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