With coronavirus vaccines being rolled out across the globe we are starting to see a reduction in restrictions and a subsequent pickup in high-frequency mobility data. After a period of restrictions early in the year Chinese data has once again normalised, and in the US and UK, where the vaccine roll out has progressed well, activity has started to increase rapidly. Europe’s recovery may be slightly delayed but the vaccine rollout is expected to speed up in coming months. Increasing global activity should be supportive of domestic focused consumer-facing equities and we see further upside for earnings estimates in these cyclical sectors. However, question marks remain around the near-term future of international travel and so investors may want to focus on more domestically orientated rebound stories until the outlook for foreign trips becomes clearer.

Activity data is increasing rapidly as vaccines are rolled out

Travel and navigation app usage, % change vs. 2019