ECB: A cut for credibility
At its monetary policy meeting on the 6 June, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). The rate cut was broadly signalled by the central bank and widely expected by investors.
Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2024
Finding value, avoiding traps
Explore our Mid-Year Investment Outlook to see what we think are the key opportunities and risks for investors over the next 12-18 months.
At its monetary policy meeting on the 6 June, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). The rate cut was broadly signalled by the central bank and widely expected by investors.
Singapore and HK interest rates have moved sharply higher over the past few years, abetted by a high correlation with US monetary policy. However, they have echoed rather than mirrored the upward trend in US interest rates.
Falling inflation across APAC has raised expectations of rapid central bank rate cuts to boost flagging domestic growth – however APAC central banks appear reluctant to diverge from the Fed.
We believe that interest rates in developed markets have peaked, with central banks likely to initiate gradual cuts rather than returning to the near-zero levels seen in recent years. The anticipation of declining interest rates, alongside a resilient macroeconomic outlook and favourable all-in yields, could present one of the best environments for standard money market strategies in the last 15 years, in our opinion.
With US inflation finally trending downwards, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has pivoted to a more dovish bias, although the timing and extent of future rate cuts remains uncertain. Across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, inflation is also declining, raising the prospect of lower regional interest rates. However, the impact will likely be more variable due to country-specific nuances.
With Q1 '24 underway, Kyongsoo Noh answers the top five questions on the minds of liquidity investors.
At its first monetary policy meeting of 2024, the RBA left its OCR unchanged at 4.35%. The decision was in-line with market expectations, although the tone of the accompanying statement was more hawkish than expected.
The BoE held the Bank Rate steady at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive meeting but removed their bias towards the next move being another hike in rates. Notably, the decision was not unanimous as two members continued to vote for a 25 basis point (bp) hike, while one member voted for a 25bp cut leaving six members, including the Governor voting for unchanged rates.
On 29th January, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) decided to maintain the prevailing rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band, with no change to its width nor centre point.
At its first monetary policy meeting of the year on 25 January 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all key interest rates on hold. This was the third consecutive meeting to conclude with no change to monetary policy, with the last rate hike occurring in September 2023.
BOE voted to maintain Bank rate at 5.25% (6:3 split for hike) again. The Panel maintained its guidance that rates would need to be “sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long” to curb inflation.
At its monetary policy meeting on 14th December 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all key interest rates on hold, for a second consecutive meeting. The ECB announced that reinvestments of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), will decrease by 50% from July 2024. President Lagarde stated that the Governing Council (GC), will not let its guard down, in the fight against inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as anticipated. However, the quarterly update for the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a dovish bias, with the “dots” pointing towards three cuts for next year, with a rate at the end of 2024 of 4.50-4.75%. The market reacted by increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2024, pricing in cuts more aggressively than the Fed.
When comparing short-term money market strategies with step out strategies such as standard money market or ultra-short duration bond strategies, it’s important to consider the future total return potential rather than just today’s yield.
At their last monetary policy meeting of the year on 5 December, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%. This was in line with market expectations.
Market attention has veered towards other policy options that are at the disposal of the ECB’s Governing Council (GC). One such option, the remuneration of Minimum Reserve Requirements (MRR), has recently come under particular focus. While not widely understood, adjustments to this rate could have significant implications for short term interest rates and liquidity demand.
At its monetary policy meeting on the 7 November, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to raise the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to a 12-year high of 4.35%. The rate hike, which follows a five-month hiatus was widely anticipated by economists following stronger than expected economic data.
At its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the BoE voted to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%. The BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey noted that inflation has fallen, and is expected to fall further this year and next year, while monetary policy is viewed as restrictive.
At its monetary policy meeting on 26 October 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all key interest rates on hold, the first pause after 10 consecutive rate rises.
At its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on 13 October, the MAS decided to maintain its prevailing monetary policy stance Fig 1a for a second meeting - following five previous upward adjustments. The decision was In-line with expectations, with the central bank leaving the slope, band width, and mid-point of SGD NEER unchanged.
At Michele Bullock’s first monetary policy meeting as the Governor, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%. This was the fourth pause in the central bank’s rate hiking cycle.
The FOMC unanimously decided to make no changes to the 5.25%-5.50% federal funds target range. Interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) rate were also left unchanged at 5.40% and 5.30%, respectively
The rise in interest rates over the last two years has been dramatic. UK interest rates have risen at the sharpest pace since the 1980s, while rates in Europe have rapidly increased from negative territory to the highest level since the inception of the euro. Evidently, this sharp rise in rates is good news for corporate treasurers.
At its September 2023 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained Bank Rate at 5.25% in a split 5-4 decision, while unanimously deciding to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £100 billion over the next twelve months.
At its monetary policy meeting on 14 September 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) tightened monetary policy further, increasing key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).
For the past three decades, the property sector has been a key driver of Chinese economic growth. While the recent property downturn in China has created challenges for the banks’ operating environment, the banks’ credit profiles likely remain resilient in the future.
On 14 September 2023, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a broad based 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) rate cut. The timing and the shortness of the notice period was unexpected.
At Governor Lowe’s last monetary policy meeting as head of the RBA, the bank decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%. This was widely expected by economists following slightly softer economic data and a recent decline in monthly inflation.
On 15 August 2023, the People’s Bank of China cut its 1-year Medium Term Lending Facility by 0.15% to 2.50% and its 7-day open market operation repo rate by 10bps to 1.80%.
On August 1, 2023 Fitch downgraded the United States of America’s long-term credit rating one notch, from AAA to AA+.
The Bank of England (BoE) opted to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25%, as a recent cooling in both inflation and the economic outlook allowed it to moderate the magnitude of its hike from the 50bps delivered in June.
At its monetary policy meeting on 1 August 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged for a second month. This follows a cumulative 400bps of rate hikes over the previous fifteen months, which has taken base rates to a decade high of 4.10%.
At its monetary policy meeting on 27 July 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) tightened monetary policy further, increasing key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to raise interest rates 25bps. The new target range is 5.25%-5.50%—the highest level in more than 22 years—yet we may not have reached the peak.
On 20 July 2023, the European Commission published its report to the Council and the European Parliament on the adequacy of the European Union Money Market Fund Regulation.
On 12 July 2023, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced amendments to its rules governing money market funds (MMFs). The new rules will lead to changes for US domiciled MMFs, as well as specific changes impacting institutional (prime and tax exempt) MMFs, and government, Treasury and retail MMFs.
At its monetary policy meeting on the 4th of July, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the overnight cash rate unchanged at 4.10%. This represents the second pause in the central bank’s current hiking cycle.
In a widely anticipated move, the Peoples Bank of China cut its 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility by 10bps to 2.65% on the 15th of June. The action follows a 7-day Repo cut and a Standing Lending Facility rate cut last week and highlights the central bank’s decisively dovish pivot as the authorities seek to stabilize China’s faltering economic recovery.
At its 13th June Open Market Operation, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its 7-day Reverse Repo Rate by 10bps to 1.90%. The repo rate is a key tool used by the central bank to ensure adequate market liquidity, this also represents the first repo rate cut since August 2022.
At its monetary policy meeting on May 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market by hiking its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%. Justifying its abrupt volte-face, the central bank said “inflation… is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range”.
Following its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on April 14, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its prevailing monetary policy unchanged – including the slope, width and center-point of the band – unchanged. This represents the central bank’s first pause since it began tightening its policy in October 2021.
On 4 April, the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%. This represents the first pause by a major central bank and follows a cumulative 350bps of hikes over the past ten consecutive meetings.
On Friday 17th March, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a broad-based 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) rate cut, releasing additional liquidity into the banking system and reducing commercial bank funding costs.
The European Central Bank (ECB) acted on February’s forward guidance by increasing key interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), despite current market volatility.
At its monetary policy meeting on the 7th of March, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to an eleven-year high of 3.60%. The rate hike was widely anticipated following last month’s hawkish pivot.
The HKMA intervened to defend the peg and purchased HKD 19bn on February 14-15. This has reduced its aggregate balance to HKD 77bn, the lowest level in almost three years.
At its first monetary policy meeting of 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.35%. The move represents the ninth consecutive hike in the current cycle, and the accompanying statement was more hawkish than expected.
The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations to a 15-year high of 3.00%. In the accompanying statement and subsequent press conference, the ECB maintained its hawkish tone, signalled an intention to increase rates by a further 50 bps in March.
The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 4.00% in a split 7-2 vote as a tight labour market and continued domestic wage and price pressures justified a tenth consecutive increase.
At its 14 December monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England voted to raise the Bank Rate by 50bps to 3.50%, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 2008.
At their final monetary policy meeting of 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to a decade high of 3.10%.
On Friday 25 November, the People’s Bank of China announced a 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio cut. In the accompanying statement, the PBoC confirmed the RRR cut was part of a package of measures to support economic growth.
After a series of jumbo rate hikes, it appears most investors are anticipating a pivot from the US Federal Reserve. However, the elevated level of inflation and resilience of the economy mean that rate cuts are unlikely for some time.
At its 3 November monetary policy meeting, the BoE finally joined the 75bps rate hike club, increasing the base rate to 3.00%, the highest level in almost 14 years. Over the past 11 months, the central bank has pushed the base rate up by 290bps – the fastest pace on record – driven by a combination of elevated inflation, a tight employment market and the potential for this to lead to more persistent inflation, and the recent fiscal support for household energy bills.
At its monetary policy meeting on 1 November, the RBA raised the Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 2.85%. This was the seventh hike in the current cycle, taking base rates to a nine-year high.
At its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on 14 October, the MAS re-centered the mid-point of the S$NEER up to its prevailing level – approximately a 2% increase – while keeping the slope and width of the policy band unchanged.
The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 2.25% in a split 5-3-1 vote as the tight labour market, higher wages and higher domestic inflation justified a seventh consecutive hike.
On August 15, the People’s Bank of China announced a MLF rate cut of 10bps to 2.75%. Although small in size, the rate cut confirms the PBOC’s desire to jump-start the economy and sends an important monetary policy signal with significant implications for interest rates and RMB cash investors.
In a near-consensus 8-1 vote, the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 1.75%, the highest level in over 13 years as domestic cost and price pressures intensify.
On July 27, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its Federal Funds Rate target range by 75 basis points (bps) to 2.25% - 2.50%. There were no dissenters.
On July 14, the MAS announced it would tighten monetary policy by re-centering the S$NEER policy band upwards. While the timing of the MAS statement was a surprise, the market was expecting further policy actions.
On June 7, the RBA surprised the market by raising the Overnight Cash Rate by 50bps to 0.85%. This is the second rate hike in the current cycle, following a 25bps move in early May. The size of the rate hike also affirms the RBA’s desire to get ahead of the inflation fighting curve.
The RBA hiked its Overnight Cash Rate for the first time in over a decade at its 3rd May monetary policy meeting. The hike was more hawkish than expected.
At its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday 5th of April, the RBA left base rates unchanged at a record low of 0.1% whilst acknowledged that “inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected” in the accompanying comments. Its hawkish tilt and giving a clear hint to potential rate rises in the coming months.
On 15-16 March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its two-day meeting and raised its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25%-0.5%, with one dissenting member calling for a 50bps increase.
The Bank of England (BoE) raised the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75% in a split 8-1 vote with the dissenting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member calling for no change on 17 March 2022.
At their first monetary policy meeting of 2022, the RBA acknowledged that the economy “remains resilient” despite the recent Omicron outbreak which has not derailed the recovery.
Singapore’s de-facto central bank hiked the slope of the S$NEER policy band, increasing the pace of appreciation. The unexpected hike was triggered by the strong inflation uptrend in recent days as well as a reassessment of Singapore’s growth and inflation expectations in 2022 by the MAS.
The Bank of England (BoE) defied market expectations for a rate hike as they left the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.1% and maintained total target of asset purchases at GBP 895 billion. The deferred hike means no immediate respite to ultra-low sterling yields, although further interest rate volatility is likely; investors should consider maintaining a disciplined approach to cash investment and segmentation.
The RBA announced its first tentative step towards tapering and eventual policy normalization.
Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sports betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.
An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.
With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.
Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: on tech valuations, AI, energy and US politics Last week I spoke to the firm’s tech CEO clients at a conference in Montana. This note is a partial summary of that presentation, entitled “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election”.
Electravision. The predominant vision for the future involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. This vision primarily relies upon the greater efficiency of electric motors and heat pumps vs their fossil fuel counterparts. While the grid is getting greener, electrification is advancing at a much slower pace for reasons related to chemistry, physics, cost, politics and human behavior. Our 14th annual energy paper takes a closer look, and also includes sections on nuclear power, China, hydrogen, “net zero oil” and Gaza’s energy future.
Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.
This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.
Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer with real time data as a function of infection levels and state policy. Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac) and anticoagulants.
Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.
A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit
Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets
A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.
I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.
Global Resilience to higher rates
The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs
Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while
Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.
One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.
US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot
The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.
The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.
A discussion of the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX and three rules for investors: the Gensler Rule, the Sirens Rule and the Summers Rule. Our 2023 Outlook will be released as usual on January 1st.
A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.
My list of things I am thankful for this year: CH4, HR4346 and mRNA-1273. Of course, your mileage may vary.
Three reruns for investors. First, in almost every post-war bear market, equity declines preceded the fall in earnings, growth and employment. As a result, we’re more focused on changes in manufacturing surveys than on the other victims of a recession as a sign of the bottom. Second, Graham Allison’s rising power conflict analysis and its historical precedents come back into focus with the latest US policies cutting off high performance semiconductor exports to China. Third, another press article on a small country as a prototype for a renewable future that does not address its irrelevance for larger developed or developing economies.
Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.
Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.
The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.
Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.
Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think
In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.
Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?
In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.
After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.
Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.
There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.
There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.
A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.
Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?
A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.
After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.
How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.
A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.
It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.
Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.
Read our latest On the Minds of Investors article to understand what the outcome of the French National Assembly elections could mean for investors.
We explore what the UK election means for the economy and markets.
Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities
We explore the potential economic and market scenarios stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Europe has made structural improvements and we think investors should sit up and take notice.
We look at why we think investors should look to diversify their exposure to the magnificent seven US stocks.
This paper, written by Tilmann Galler and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the recent Chinese economic data releases and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, Marcella Chow and Tilmann Galler, discusses the outlook of China and policy implications.
Understand the drivers of small cap valuations and find out why small cap stocks could still offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.
A likely pause in the US hiking cycle is now approaching. See how the peak in rates has impacted equity and bond markets in the past.
Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Tilmann Galler, discusses the outlook for India equities and the investment implications.
Green bonds are attractive instruments for working towards positive environmental benefits. Find out why demand for green bonds from investors is expected to continue to grow.
A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.