The Weekly Strategy Report (01 February 2016)Contributor Multi-Asset Solutions
- Recent developments have called into question our upbeat view on the U.S. economy; markets are much less optimistic.
- Two developments since late 2015 carry potential implications for the outlook. Growth lost momentum in the fourth quarter of last year, and the market sell-off has itself tightened financial conditions.
- We are downplaying the GDP growth swoon, regarding it as temporary, and take some comfort from continued strength in employment, consumer confidence and bank lending, while we are closely watching the upward drift in jobless claims.
- Tighter financial conditions will represent a drag on growth, but likely a manageable one, especially because the dollar has not continued its sharp appreciation.
Exhibit 1: U.S. payrool employment and real GDP
The JPMorgan Global Growth & Income plc (formerly JPMorgan Overseas Investment Trust plc) seeks out strong long-term returns by investing in a best ideas, high-conviction portfolio from across the world's stock market.
Please be aware that this material is for information purposes only. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are, unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited accepts no legal responsibility or liability for any matter or opinion expressed in this material.
The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to the future.