The Weekly Strategy Report (November 12, 2018) - J.P. Morgan Asset Management
CLOSE

The Weekly Strategy Report (November 12, 2018)

Contributor Multi-Asset Solutions
In brief
  • Our 2019 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions estimate for real global GDP growth of 2.5% is unchanged from last year; despite a few country-level adjustments, the secular growth outlook is stable and risks are balanced.
  • Expected returns for a U.S. 60/40 portfolio are slightly improved, up from 5.25% to 5.50%. The U.S. stock-bond frontier rotated further in a clockwise direction due to higher expected bond returns.
  • Global equity returns are unchanged, but there is some regional divergence, which may offer opportunities for investors. Bond return forecasts improved this year, notably in the U.S., where policy normalization has created a favorable entry point. Alternatives are a relative bright spot, as fee reduction and improved alpha trends lend support.
  • In our current tactical asset allocation we remain overweight U.S. large cap equities and have tactically leaned gradually more into Treasuries; improved valuations should help them provide more meaningful protection during a negative growth shock.
EXHIBIT 1: HISTORICAL 25-YEAR AVERAGE RETURNS FOR KEY ASSETS AND THIS YEAR'S ESTIMATES

EXHIBIT 1: HISTORICAL 25-YEAR AVERAGE RETURNS FOR KEY ASSETS AND THIS YEAR

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management Multi-Asset Solutions; data as of September 30, 2018.

Weekly Strategy Report (November 12, 2018)

Related products

JPM Global Macro Opportunities Fund
Leveraging global macro themes to generate performance. This fund targets positive returns in various market conditions by capitalising on the opportunities created by economic trends within a risk-controlled framework.
JPM Multi-Asset Income Fund
Using a flexible approach that seeks only the best income opportunities from around the globe, our Multi-Asset Income Fund aims to provide investors with a consistent and attractive income stream and the opportunity for capital growth.
JPMorgan Global Growth & Income plc

The JPMorgan Global Growth & Income plc seeks out strong long-term returns by investing in a best ideas, high-conviction portfolio from across the world's stock market. The Company also delivers predictable quarterly income distributions which are set at the beginning of its financial year.


Important information

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. This communication is issued in the United Kingdom by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Registered in England No. 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.