The Weekly Strategy Report (July 22, 2019) - J.P. Morgan Asset Management
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The Weekly Strategy Report (July 22, 2019)

Contributor Multi-Asset Solutions
In brief
  • We wish a happy birthday to the U.S. business cycle expansion, which just turned 10 and is now the longest ever.
  • Expansions appear to have grown longer over time and the current one does not look like a particular outlier compared with other recent cycles. Although the expansion has reached a ripe old age, we do not think it displays significant fragility.
  • Corporate leverage remains the most obvious threat to the expansion’s persistence, especially if trade tensions lead to a “stranded asset” problem.
  • The recent improvement in productivity growth, while likely ephemeral, represents one possible source of upside risk.
  • We continue to favor a middle-ground approach to portfolio positioning, with continued emphasis on credit rather than equities.
EXHIBIT 1: U.S. EXPANSIONS HAVE GROWN LONGER OVER TIME

EXHIBIT 1: U.S. EXPANSIONS HAVE GROWN LONGER OVER TIME

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research; data as of July 2019.

The Weekly Strategy Report (July 22, 2019)

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