The Weekly Brief (30 November 2015)Contributor Global Markets Insights Strategy Team
The year started with a sharp fall in global exports, and the monthly World Trade monitor showed flat or falling trade volumes in most of the first half of 2015.
This lack of trade growth was driven largely by the slowdown in emerging economies, particularly China, and the slump in global commodities. However, the latest data from the Netherlands Bureau for Policy Analysis (CPB) shows a 1.0% rise in trade volumes over the last six months. There are grounds for hoping this more positive trend can continue, with demand starting to stabilise in China and continued steady growth in consumption in the US and Europe. We may never go back to the era of "hyper-globalisation" – when world trade growth was much faster than global GDP year after year - but if global growth can accelerate next year as forecast then global trade should also pick up.
Volume of world trade
World Trade in USD, indexed to 100 in 2005
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