Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
US Economy Health Check chart book
Incorporating Environmental, Social & Governance
A possible change in Chinese currency policy?
An update from the front lines of the Trade War, with a focus on implications for investors
The US recovery is now the longest on record. Nobody knows exactly how much longer this expansion will last.
Monthly Market Review - August
The theory of negative interest rates is straightforward, but the practice is not. What do negative rates mean for savers?
The S&P 500 could hit 10,000 by the mid-2030s
While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.