Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
Key findings from the Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Summit
With global recessionary risks rising, we provide a framework to help UK pensions prepare for near-term risks that could challenge the fulfillment of their sponsor covenants.
Are your private credit allocations positioned for uncertainty?
Hear our asset class specialists discuss their unique experiences facing challenging market conditions, including the great recession, over decades of market cycles.
UK pension plans concerned about how to invest in a volatile, late cycle environment may want to consider two practices: continue effective rebalancing and don���t postpone further duration hedging in anticipation of rising rates.
Caught our eye: UK pension buy and maintain strategies could bring demand pressure to sterling corporate bonds
In an already tightly held market for sterling corporate bonds, even modest moves by UK pension funds to adopt buy and maintain strategies could create stiff competition for these assets.
While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
This is close to being the longest economic expansion on record. Nobody knows exactly when it will end, so it’s worth considering what investments could rise in value when equities and other risk assets fall during the next downturn.
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.