As we expected, MSCI has now formally decided to include China A-shares in its benchmark indices following its latest Market Classification Review, marking an important milestone for China’s international markets.
This is close to being the longest economic expansion on record. Nobody knows exactly when it will end, so it’s worth considering what investments could rise in value when equities and other risk assets fall during the next downturn.
The performance of the US dollar significantly diverged from relative rate spreads.
While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
As we compiled the 2018 edition of our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the world economy has enjoying its best period of synchronized growth in more than a decade.
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
Our thoughts, based on our professional judgement, on IFRS 9 and other related issues, with the expectation that clients would provide definitive clarity on their individual policies and investment guidelines regarding a number of IFRS 9 aspects.
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.