Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a useful indicator of recessions. However, quantitative easing may have distorted that signal.
THE INVESTMENT OUTLOOK FOR 2019: MID-YEAR UPDATE
Markets are increasingly nervous about the impact of the trade war on US corporate earnings and business investment.
While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
Emerging market equities are inherently volatile. But investors shouldn’t be deterred. If investors have a long time horizon, the emerging markets are expected to pay returns well in excess of developed market equities.