We cut the chances of recession to 25% after a thaw in the trade war and a year of rate cuts; our forecast is for sub trend growth. Favored sectors include emerging market local currency debt and higher rated short-duration securitized credit.
Why the US dollar may not be as overvalued as you think
What investors should consider
We expect the US dollar to underperform ahead of the first Federal Reserve (the Fed) interest rate cut of this cycle.
The potential for unilateral US currency intervention arose as a topic of research interest last year, and discussion has intensified over recent weeks.