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The Weekly Brief

Small businesses in the US are becoming more cautious about the economic outlook – the National Federation of Independent Business’ (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.3 points to 101.8 in September.
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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

The current U.S. earnings growth downcycle has been largely consistent with the recent deterioration in macroeconomic momentum.

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A matter of time

By GFICC Investors
As demand for duration sends US Treasury yields down towards 1.50%, we look at the factors that could potentially push rates through this key psychological level.
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Global Asset Allocation Views 4Q19

By John Bilton
Weakness in global trade and manufacturing dampen the global growth outlook. We keep a modest underweight to stocks, trim credit back to neutral given a deterioration in corporate fundamentals, and maintain a small overweight to USD cash.
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Global Fixed Income Views 4Q19

By Bob Michele
We doubled Recession probability to 40%, lowering Above Trend Growth from 25% to 10% and Sub Trend Growth from 45% to 40%. We favor: 10- and 30-yr Treasuries, short- and intermediate-term investment grade corporates and selected securitized instruments.
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Super Mario goes out with a bang

By Michael Bell
Mario Draghi reacted to the increased economic risks to the economic outlook with a bold package of monetary easing measures.
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Review of markets over August 2019

By Vincent Juvyns
The times when investors were able to enjoy a quiet summer seem to be over. August was a volatile month for financial markets, with the VIX averaging 19, compared to 13 in July.
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Review of markets over July 2019 

In June, the central banks came to the rescue. Confronted by weaker economic data, risks to the trade outlook and still low inflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that the cavalry is coming in the form of further monetary stimulus.
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Factor Views 3Q 2019

By Yazann Romahi, Garrett Norman
Factor performance was negative, on balance. Equity momentum gained, but event-driven factors were mixed and whipsawing commodities markets challenged macro factors. Looking ahead, we are most bullish about the prospects for the value factor.
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We walk the thinnest line

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We expect continued solid returns for emerging market debt (EMD) over the next six to 12 months, driven by healthy fundamentals, a supportive net issuance level and attractive valuations.
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Global Equity Views 3Q 2019

By Paul Quinsee
After a strong first half, we are a little cautious, but see no reason to move aggressively away from equity exposure. Many defensive stocks are richly priced, we see opportunity in out-of-favor value, and we continue to monitor trade tensions.
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The macroeconomics of climate risk: How global warming could impact economic growth

Traditional macroeconomic models run the risk of overstating potential global growth by not adequately accounting for natural resource constraints and climate change.
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Review of markets over May 2019

By Jai Malhi
After a strong first quarter, risk assets continued their rally in April. Equity markets climbed across the regions, while high yield spreads narrowed further. This year’s rebound has been driven by accommodative central banks, the expectation of a recovery in Chinese growth, and the anticipation of a resolution to Sino-American trade negotiations. Further support for the markets came from a solid start to the Q1 US earnings season.
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Emerging Market Equity Views : Favorable global cycle and USD outlooks create a positive environment

By Richard Titherington
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding, and expected returns are above average.
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How to hedge against a downturn

This is close to being the longest economic expansion on record. Nobody knows exactly when it will end, so it’s worth considering what investments could rise in value when equities and other risk assets fall during the next downturn.
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As no-deal risk subsides, UK interest rates should move higher

By Ambrose Crofton
Today the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee met, and decided unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at 0.75%.
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Review of markets over April 2019

By Tilmann Galler
After a strong first quarter, risk assets continued their rally in April. Equity markets climbed across the regions, while high yield spreads narrowed further. This year’s rebound has been driven by accommodative central banks, the expectation of a recovery in Chinese growth, and the anticipation of a resolution to Sino-American trade negotiations. Further support for the markets came from a solid start to the Q1 US earnings season.
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1Q19 Earnings: Is the party almost over?

Markets have bounced back nicely in 2019 after a volatile December, but this bounce has been driven almost entirely by multiple expansion.
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Review of markets over the first quarter of 2019

By Michael Bell
The new year has brought with it a new wave of optimism, with equities and credit rallying strongly across the world. The sell-off in equities and credit in the final quarter of last year was caused predominantly by concerns about the potential for an escalation in the trade war between the US and China, fears that higher interest rates could hurt the US economy, and broader worries about a slowdown in global growth.
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Brexit: a week of high drama, and a modicum of progress

By Karen Ward
This week the House of Commons demonstrated that a clear majority of Members of Parliament (MPs) are not willing to leave the EU without a deal.
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Deal or No Deal

By Karen Ward
The coming week is a very big week for sterling investors since the Chancellor will present a new statement on fiscal policy and there are a series of votes in the House of Commons to break the Brexit impasse.
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European Central Bank adds to dovish central bank chorus

By Karen Ward
Following a significant pivot from the US Federal Reserve in recent months, today the European Central Bank (ECB) followed suit by providing ongoing liquidity support to the eurozone’s banks.
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Review of markets over February 2019

By Jai Malhi
As in recent months, geopolitical events dominated market moves over the course of November. The outcome of the US midterm elections was broadly as markets expected. The Democrats took control of the House of Representatives and the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate.
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4Q18 US Earnings: A fork in the road

By David Lebovitz, Tyler Voigt
After a volatile December driven by concerns of rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth, and geopolitical tensions, markets have bounced back.
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Review of markets over January 2019

By Jai Malhi
As in recent months, geopolitical events dominated market moves over the course of November. The outcome of the US midterm elections was broadly as markets expected. The Democrats took control of the House of Representatives and the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate.
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Brexit: Reflections on House of Commons votes

By Karen Ward
Last night a series of votes took place in the UK House of Commons. The purpose of the votes was to establish a potential way forward for the Brexit negotiations that could command the support of a majority of members of Parliament (MPs).
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Review of Markets over the fourth quarter of 2018

By Michael Bell
The final quarter of 2018 was not good for equity markets. Investors have had to contend with rising US central bank interest rates, a sharp slowdown in eurozone business confidence, weaker Chinese growth and rising geopolitical concerns (including Brexit, Italian politics and the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China).
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