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GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWS 4Q19

Weakness in global trade and manufacturing dampen the global growth outlook. We keep a modest underweight to stocks, trim credit back to neutral given a deterioration in corporate fundamentals, and maintain a small overweight to USD cash.


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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME VIEWS 4Q 2019

We doubled Recession probability to 40%, lowering Above Trend Growth from 25% to 10% and Sub Trend Growth from 45% to 40%. We favor: 10- and 30-yr Treasuries, short- and intermediate-term investment grade corporates and selected securitized instruments.


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FACTOR VIEWS 4Q 2019

Factor performance was positive, on balance. Equity value and momentum experienced sharp reversals in early September. Event-driven factors were mixed and macro factors were up across the board despite geopolitical uncertainty.


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GLOBAL EQUITY VIEWS 3Q 2019

After a strong first half, we are a little cautious, but see no reason to move aggressively away from equity exposure. Many defensive stocks are richly priced, we see opportunity in out-of-favor value, and we continue to monitor trade tensions.


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