Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a useful indicator of recessions. However, quantitative easing may have distorted that signal. Therefore, we would not rely solely on the yield curve but also look at other indicators to track economic momentum.
A new trade announcement from the Trump administration has comprehensively overshadowed the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the financial crisis. What impact will the most recent round of tariffs have on the economy and on markets?
While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
The trade dispute between the US and China shows few signs of resolution. Why are global tariffs rising, which economies are most vulnerable and how can investors position themselves for this more challenging environment?