This year’s edition of our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions contains few significant changes to projected real GDP growth and inflation in major economies. The main themes from recent years’ forecasts remain in place.
Real growth will run at a modest pace by long-term historical standards, with aging populations representing the most important source of slowing relative to the past.
The U.S. will continue to record somewhat stronger growth than the euro area, UK, or Japan.
As a group, emerging market economies will grow faster than their developed market counterparts. India will lead the way in emerging market growth as China gradually slows.
Middle-of-the-road inflation, generally fairly close to central bank targets, will prevail in the long run.
Our 2018 assumptions anticipate lower real GDP growth globally, a narrower DM-EM growth gap and generally stable inflation
MACROECONOMICS ASSUMPTIONS (%)
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; estimates as of September 30, 2017.
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ABOUT LONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
Our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions are part of a deeply researched proprietary process that draws on in-depth quantitative and qualitative inputs from experts across J.P.Morgan Asset Management. We, and many of our clients, rely on the output as a foundation for multi-asset class investing.
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