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FACTOR VIEWS 2Q 2019

Factor performance was bifurcated amid sharp market reversals. Equity factors were down across the board; macro factors were bolstered by carry across asset classes. We see potential catalysts in place across equity, event-driven and macro spaces.


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GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWS 3Q 2019

Trade disputes are raising the downside risks to our forecast for slightly subtrend growth. We retain our mild underweight to stocks and prefer to take risk in carry assets like credit. Reflecting valuations, we downgrade duration to neutral.


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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME VIEWS 3Q 2019

Given trade escalations, Sub Trend Growth is our base case (45% probability) with Recession probability at 20% as consumer and corporate confidence erode. Favored sectors: three- to five-year corporates, long government bonds, and short securitized credit.


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GLOBAL EQUITY VIEWS 3Q 2019

After a strong first half, we are a little cautious, but see no reason to move aggressively away from equity exposure. Many defensive stocks are richly priced, we see opportunity in out-of-favor value, and we continue to monitor trade tensions.


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