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Global Asset Allocation Views 4Q 2018

By John Bilton
Global growth is above trend, but changes to U.S. trade policy and the impact of higher U.S. rates have increased risks to our outlook. We overweight stocks, but trim our positioning, upgrade duration to a small overweight and remain neutral on credit.
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The Weekly Brief

Value stocks have often outperformed growth stocks in S&P 500 downturns.
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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

Global growth is set to remain above trend, but changes to U.S. trade policy and the impact of higher U.S. rates have increased the risks to our outlook. We retain our pro-risk tilt, anticipating an economic and earnings environment consistent with equity outperformance, but moderate our conviction and trim equity positioning a little.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A time to add risk?

By GFICC Investors
With strong global growth and a shift to tighter monetary policy continuing to make government duration look unattractive, is there value to be found in high yield, or even in emerging market debt?
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European Central Bank on autopilot

By Michael Bell
Today the European Central Bank (ECB) met and, as was widely expected, decided to keep policy unchanged. The ECB’s key interest rates – the refinancing rate and the deposit rate – are to remain at 0% and -0.4% respectively.
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European high yield: Five questions for the rest of the year

Has a turbulent first half created opportunities in the European high yield (HY) market?
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Review of markets over August 2018

By Vincent Juvyns
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Global Transportation Q&A

By Andy Dacy
Assets in the transportation space may include but is not limited to anything from ships to trains to aircrafts, providing institutional investors with alternative sources of returns. Andy Dacy talks about how the asset class is evolving and where he currently sees the best investment opportunities.
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To what extent should investors worry about Turkey?

By Gabriela Santos, Alex Dryden
Turkish assets have been under severe pressure, with the Turkish lira depreciating against the U.S. dollar.
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Review of markets over July 2018

By Nandini Ramakrishnan
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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2Q18 US earnings update: Tug of war

By David Lebovitz
2018 has seen the stock market struggle to find direction, as political risks and robust earnings growth have offset one another, complicating the investment landscape.
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Global Equity Views 3Q 2018

By Paul Quinsee
While U.S. equities are progressing and stocks elsewhere have been weaker, we remain reasonably optimistic. Earnings are rising at a healthy pace and valuations look reasonable. Fears about profits’ sustainability may restrain gains from here.
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Factor Views 3Q 2018

By Yazann Romahi
As volatility subsided and equity markets recovered, performance was mixed across factors. We see potential catalysts in place across the equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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Mind the Valuation

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Broad emerging market (EM) fundamentals at both the sovereign and corporate end remain strong; however, the widening growth gap between the US and other developed markets, in addition to rising core yields and stronger US dollar, has created a challenging external environment for emerging markets.
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Brexit: Ready for the main event

By Karen Ward
Karen Ward provides an update on Brexit following Prime Minister May's cabinet meeting and the subsequent resignation of David Davis, Brexit Secretary.
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Review of markets over the second quarter 2018

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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Trade tensions: A fight on many fronts

By David Lebovitz, Hannah Anderson, Gabriela Santos
Trade related headlines have been overwhelming over the past few months. It is important for investors to separate tariffs that have been enacted from tariffs that are still under discussion.
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Global Fixed Income Views 3Q 2018

By Bob Michele
Our base-case scenario remains Above Trend Growth, amid continuing global economic strength. We remain cautious on U.S. rates, expecting market volatility with transition away from QE. Favored sectors: Short duration securitized credit, leveraged credit.
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2018 investment outlook: Mid-year update

By Karen Ward
Karen Ward reviews the first half of 2018 and considers what lies ahead for the rest of the year.
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The Fed: More hawkish, but what did you expect?

By Dr. David Kelly
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 1.75%-2.00% today.
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Review of markets over May 2018

By Tilmann Galler
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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A populist shift in Italy but not a systemic risk

By Maria Paola Toschi
With a Prime Minister appointed, Italy is now forming a government around a coalition of two parties - Movement Five Star (M5S) and League (formerly Northern League).
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Emerging Market Strategy Q2 2018: Internal strength, external risks

By George Iwanicki
Risks to an asset class come in two varieties—internal and external. In past cycles, the main risks to emerging markets came from within (overheating economies, FX peg regimes amid external deficits and hard currency-denominated sovereign debt, among others). But as we assess the prospect for EM equities, the risks today appear to be primarily external, not internal.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold amid mixed signals on the economy

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its base rate of interest unchanged at 0.5% at its meeting today.
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Review of markets over April 2018

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Review of markets over the first quarter of 2018

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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Shedding light on trade turmoil

By Dr. David Kelly
Over the past week financial markets have reacted negatively to the President’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum, mainly due to fears of a trade war that could reduce global trade.
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European Central Bank meeting: Subdued inflation to keep policy accommodative

By Karen Ward
The European Central Bank (ECB) met today and kept policy unchanged.
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Italian election: Let the coalition battle commence

By Maria Paola Toschi
The Italian election did not result in a majority for either a single party or coalition.
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German politics: SPD members vote for four more years of Chancellor Merkel

By Tilmann Galler
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) voted this weekend with 66% of its members in favor of forming a government with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives.
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Trade Turmoil: U.S. actions on steel and aluminum worry investors

By Hannah Anderson
The U.S. is actively pursuing protectionist trade policies, announcing tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. This latest action should not come as a surprise as it is in line with previous comments from this administration on trade.
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Review of markets over February 2018

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Asian equities: More room to run?

By Ian Hui, Tai Hui
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Ian Hui, discusses the current situation on earnings, valuations and headwinds for Asian equities and how it affects our outlook.
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Emerging markets strategy Q1 2018: Volatility returns, fundamentals stay strong

By George Iwanicki
The combination of broadening economic growth and contained inflation is driving strong earnings gains.
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Bank of England: Less willing to tolerate inflation above target

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its policy steady in February. The key interest rate was maintained at 0.5% and there were no changes to the asset purchase programme.
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February volatility: More noise than signal?

By Karen Ward
Karen Ward looks at whether recent volatility is more market noise, rather than selling signal.
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Review of markets over January 2018

By Nandini Ramakrishnan
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Italian general election: Some concern is warranted but risks to the eurozone remain low

By Maria Paola Toschi
This paper reviews the possible outcomes of the Italian election that will take place on 4 March 2018.
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Review of markets over fourth quarter 2017

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last quarter.
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The investment implications of tax reform

By Dr. David Kelly
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act should soon be signed into law. While much of the motivation for U.S. tax reform has come from a desire to cut corporate taxes, most of the net benefits will accrue to individual taxpayers.
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The investment outlook for 2018: It ain’t over till the central banks sing

By Karen Ward
The macro environment in 2017 provided fertile ground for most asset markets.
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Fed reactions following the December FOMC meeting

By Dr. David Kelly
In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the federal funds rate by 25bps to a range of 1.25% - 1.50%. The committee cited continued strength in the labor market and rising economic growth as the deciding factors in today’s announcement.
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Brexit: EU & UK reach divorce terms

By Karen Ward
Overnight the UK and EU authorities completed phase one of the Brexit negotiations.
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Review of markets over November 2017

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Monthly Market Review - November (Hong Kong traditional Chinese)

By Tai Hui
We are pleased to release this month's market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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The Bank of England increases rates

By Michael Bell
The first rate rise in a decade was widely expected by markets.
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Fed reaction following the FOMC meeting

By David Lebovitz
As expected, the FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate at a range of 1.00% to 1.25% at the November meeting, citing “realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation” as the driving forces behind today's decision.
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Review of markets over October 2017

By Nandini Ramakrishnan
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Japanese election: A sweep in the polls does not mean sweeping change for investors

Reactions from the Global Market Insights Strategy team following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party's victory in Japan's snap election.
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3Q Earnings Update: Earnings will set you free

By David Lebovitz
David Lebovtiz and Tyler Voigt discuss the third quarter US earnings season.
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Quality over quantity: Investment implications of China’s new economic policy

This paper discusses the evolution of China’s economic policy after the 19th National Party Congress and how it impacts our view on Chinese equities.
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Monthly Market Review - October (Hong Kong traditional Chinese)

By Tai Hui
We are pleased to release this month's market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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Monthly Market Review - October (Taiwan traditional Chinese)

By Tai Hui
We are pleased to release this month's market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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Review of markets over third quarter 2017

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last quarter.
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Evolving expectations for infrastructure investing

Infrastructure remains an attractive asset class for institutional investors given its low correlations to other asset classes, relatively high yields, and the positive outlook for investor demand.
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Emerging Market Debt: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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Inflation's next phase

By Benjamin Mandel, Michael Hood
For investors, the recovery of inflation and inflation risk premia, against the backdrop of anchored inflation expectations, imply a supportive environment for risk assets. Our outlook suggests continued upward pressure on the market pricing of inflation, manifesting in higher bond yields and a widening spread between nominal and inflation-protected bonds.
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UK GDP: Continued strong growth numbers 

By Alex Dryden
With the economy growing at 2% and inflation hitting a 30-month high in December, the Bank of England is in a tough spot. In normal times, strong economic growth and higher inflation would lead to tighter monetary policy.
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Entering the reflation era

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We are entering a new investment paradigm: the era of "lower for longer" and "search for yield" has now been replaced by an era shaped by higher growth, inflation and rates.
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