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Emerging Market Equity Views : Favorable global cycle and USD outlooks create a positive environment

By Richard Titherington
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding, and expected returns are above average.
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How to hedge against a downturn

This is close to being the longest economic expansion on record. Nobody knows exactly when it will end, so it’s worth considering what investments could rise in value when equities and other risk assets fall during the next downturn.
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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

After several months of calm, recent weeks have brought a resurgence of international trade disputes; the U.S. and China raised tariffs again on each other’s goods, and other trade issues continue to ferment.

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The Weekly Brief

Rising geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and Venezuela and worries over supply disruption have pushed Brent crude oil prices up by 34% in 2019.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Central banks recalibrate

By GFICC Investors
Central banks across the globe recalibrated their policy stance in the first week of May, making it clear that inflation is not the sole driver of their decisions. What does this suggest for the future direction of monetary policy?
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As no-deal risk subsides, UK interest rates should move higher

By Ambrose Crofton
Today the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee met, and decided unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at 0.75%.
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Review of markets over April 2019

By Tilmann Galler
After a strong first quarter, risk assets continued their rally in April. Equity markets climbed across the regions, while high yield spreads narrowed further. This year’s rebound has been driven by accommodative central banks, the expectation of a recovery in Chinese growth, and the anticipation of a resolution to Sino-American trade negotiations. Further support for the markets came from a solid start to the Q1 US earnings season.
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From crisis to Goldilocks

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We enter the 2nd quarter with a constructive view on emerging markets debt. In our view, the combination of a dovish Federal Reserve, Chinese stimulus and a stable servicing backdrop should lead to a stable returns profile for the rest of 2019.
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Factor Views 2Q 2019

By Yazann Romahi, Garrett Norman
Factor performance was bifurcated amid sharp market reversals. Equity factors were down across the board; macro factors were bolstered by carry across asset classes. We see potential catalysts in place across equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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1Q19 Earnings: Is the party almost over?

Markets have bounced back nicely in 2019 after a volatile December, but this bounce has been driven almost entirely by multiple expansion.
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Review of markets over the first quarter of 2019

By Michael Bell
The new year has brought with it a new wave of optimism, with equities and credit rallying strongly across the world. The sell-off in equities and credit in the final quarter of last year was caused predominantly by concerns about the potential for an escalation in the trade war between the US and China, fears that higher interest rates could hurt the US economy, and broader worries about a slowdown in global growth.
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Global Fixed Income Views 2Q19

By Bob Michele
We cut the chances of Above Trend Growth to 45%; we expect a soft landing and roughly trend growth for the global economy and don’t see recession in 2019 or early 2020. Favored sectors: emerging market debt and FX, BBB corporates, high yield credit and loans and short-term securitized credit.
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Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2019

By John Bilton
Although recession risk is muted, we anticipate subtrend global growth in 2019. We slightly underweight stocks and overweight duration, taking cash back to neutral. The current environment supports carry a little more than capital growth. 
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Brexit: a week of high drama, and a modicum of progress

By Karen Ward
This week the House of Commons demonstrated that a clear majority of Members of Parliament (MPs) are not willing to leave the EU without a deal.
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Deal or No Deal

By Karen Ward
The coming week is a very big week for sterling investors since the Chancellor will present a new statement on fiscal policy and there are a series of votes in the House of Commons to break the Brexit impasse.
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European Central Bank adds to dovish central bank chorus

By Karen Ward
Following a significant pivot from the US Federal Reserve in recent months, today the European Central Bank (ECB) followed suit by providing ongoing liquidity support to the eurozone’s banks.
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Review of markets over February 2019

By Jai Malhi
As in recent months, geopolitical events dominated market moves over the course of November. The outcome of the US midterm elections was broadly as markets expected. The Democrats took control of the House of Representatives and the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate.
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4Q18 US Earnings: A fork in the road

By David Lebovitz, Tyler Voigt
After a volatile December driven by concerns of rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth, and geopolitical tensions, markets have bounced back.
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Review of markets over January 2019

By Jai Malhi
As in recent months, geopolitical events dominated market moves over the course of November. The outcome of the US midterm elections was broadly as markets expected. The Democrats took control of the House of Representatives and the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate.
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Brexit: Reflections on House of Commons votes

By Karen Ward
Last night a series of votes took place in the UK House of Commons. The purpose of the votes was to establish a potential way forward for the Brexit negotiations that could command the support of a majority of members of Parliament (MPs).
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Global Equity Views 1Q 2019

By Paul Quinsee
After a year of weak returns, we see an above-average level of opportunity across areas of global stock markets. By region our U.S. investors are the most optimistic as 2019 begins. Trade tensions and tariffs pose the main risk to equity markets.
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Review of Markets over the fourth quarter of 2018

By Michael Bell
The final quarter of 2018 was not good for equity markets. Investors have had to contend with rising US central bank interest rates, a sharp slowdown in eurozone business confidence, weaker Chinese growth and rising geopolitical concerns (including Brexit, Italian politics and the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China).
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The Fed: One hike and a flock of dovish signals

By Dr. David Kelly
The Federal Reserve raised its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 2.25%-2.50%.
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European Central Bank meeting: Quantitative easing is coming to an end but low rates likely to persist

By Jai Malhi
Today the European Central Bank (ECB), at its final monetary policy meeting of the year, confirmed that it will cease net asset purchases at the end of this year, in line with its previous guidance.
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Review of markets over November 2018

By Maria Paola Toschi
As in recent months, geopolitical events dominated market moves over the course of November. The outcome of the US midterm elections was broadly as markets expected. The Democrats took control of the House of Representatives and the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate.
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Brexit: Getting there

By Karen Ward
There has been significant progress in the Brexit negotiations in the last 48 hours.
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The investment implications of the US midterms

By Dr. David Kelly
The results of the US midterm elections were largely in line with expectations, with one important wrinkle.
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Review of markets over October 2018

By Jai Malhi
Market volatility returned in October. The S&P 500 moved up or down by more than 1% in a single day on ten occasions last month – two more times than in the whole of 2017.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold, waiting for a deal

By Michael Bell
At the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) press conference, Governor Carney noted that businesses are taking a very cautious approach right now because of the uncertainty around the outcome of the ongoing Brexit negotiations.
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Budget delivers tax cuts

By Michael Bell
The Chancellor pointed out at the beginning of this budget that a new budget could be required in the spring if a Brexit deal is not reached.
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3Q18 US Earnings: The risks begin to crystallize

By David Lebovitz
After a relatively quiet summer, volatility spiked in October as investors worried about rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth and geopolitical tensions.
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Brexit Briefing: Pensions perspective

Sorca Kelly-Scholte, Head of EMEA Pensions Solutions and Advisory Team, provides a video update on the main implications of BREXIT for pension firms
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Brexit Briefing: Corporate perspective

Dan Watkins, Deputy CEO, Asset Management EMEA, provides a video update on the questions investors should be asking their aseet managers around BREXIT.
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Brexit Briefing: Economic and market perspective

Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist, provides a video update on Brexit negotiations and their possible implications.
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How will the Brexit negotiations conclude?

We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively "soft" Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.
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Review of markets over the third quarter 2018

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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Currency Thoughts: Why has the dollar diverged from rate spreads

In January 2018, the performance of the US dollar significantly diverged from relative rate spreads. This divergent performance was unusual when viewed from a historical perspective, but has reoccurred again, albeit to a lesser extent, in recent weeks. Where next?
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The Italian budget – pushing the boundaries

By Maria Paola Toschi
Markets have been nervously awaiting the new Italian government’s budget proposal.
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The Fed: Raising rates and uncertainty

By Dr. David Kelly
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 2.00%-2.25%. The language in its statement and its economic projections was slightly more hawkish than in its June meeting.
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Turning the dial: Portfolio considerations in the late cycle

By Karen Ward, Michael Bell
Like summers, economic expansions do not last forever. The US recovery is now the second longest on record. There is nothing to suggest it will end in the near future, so the broad prognosis for risk assets remains good. But we know that—like weather forecasters—economists struggle to precisely time a change in the outlook.
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European Central Bank on autopilot

By Michael Bell
Today the European Central Bank (ECB) met and, as was widely expected, decided to keep policy unchanged. The ECB’s key interest rates – the refinancing rate and the deposit rate – are to remain at 0% and -0.4% respectively.
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European high yield: Five questions for the rest of the year

Has a turbulent first half created opportunities in the European high yield (HY) market?
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Review of markets over August 2018

By Vincent Juvyns
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Global Transportation Q&A

By Andrian R. Dacy
Assets in the transportation space may include but is not limited to anything from ships to trains to aircrafts, providing institutional investors with alternative sources of returns. Andy Dacy talks about how the asset class is evolving and where he currently sees the best investment opportunities.
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To what extent should investors worry about Turkey?

By Gabriela Santos, Alex Dryden
Turkish assets have been under severe pressure, with the Turkish lira depreciating against the U.S. dollar.
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Review of markets over July 2018

A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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2Q18 US earnings update: Tug of war

By David Lebovitz
2018 has seen the stock market struggle to find direction, as political risks and robust earnings growth have offset one another, complicating the investment landscape.
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Brexit: Ready for the main event

By Karen Ward
Karen Ward provides an update on Brexit following Prime Minister May's cabinet meeting and the subsequent resignation of David Davis, Brexit Secretary.
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Review of markets over the second quarter 2018

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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Trade tensions: A fight on many fronts

By David Lebovitz, Hannah Anderson, Gabriela Santos
Trade related headlines have been overwhelming over the past few months. It is important for investors to separate tariffs that have been enacted from tariffs that are still under discussion.
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2018 investment outlook: Mid-year update

By Karen Ward
Karen Ward reviews the first half of 2018 and considers what lies ahead for the rest of the year.
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The Fed: More hawkish, but what did you expect?

By Dr. David Kelly
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 1.75%-2.00% today.
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Review of markets over May 2018

By Tilmann Galler
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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A populist shift in Italy but not a systemic risk

By Maria Paola Toschi
With a Prime Minister appointed, Italy is now forming a government around a coalition of two parties - Movement Five Star (M5S) and League (formerly Northern League).
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold amid mixed signals on the economy

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its base rate of interest unchanged at 0.5% at its meeting today.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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Shedding light on trade turmoil

By Dr. David Kelly
Over the past week financial markets have reacted negatively to the President’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum, mainly due to fears of a trade war that could reduce global trade.
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Italian election: Let the coalition battle commence

By Maria Paola Toschi
The Italian election did not result in a majority for either a single party or coalition.
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The investment implications of tax reform

By Dr. David Kelly
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act should soon be signed into law. While much of the motivation for U.S. tax reform has come from a desire to cut corporate taxes, most of the net benefits will accrue to individual taxpayers.
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The investment outlook for 2018: It ain’t over till the central banks sing

By Karen Ward
The macro environment in 2017 provided fertile ground for most asset markets.
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Fed reactions following the December FOMC meeting

By Dr. David Kelly
In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the federal funds rate by 25bps to a range of 1.25% - 1.50%. The committee cited continued strength in the labor market and rising economic growth as the deciding factors in today’s announcement.
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Brexit: EU & UK reach divorce terms

By Karen Ward
Overnight the UK and EU authorities completed phase one of the Brexit negotiations.
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Review of markets over November 2017

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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The Bank of England increases rates

By Michael Bell
The first rate rise in a decade was widely expected by markets.
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Fed reaction following the FOMC meeting

By David Lebovitz
As expected, the FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate at a range of 1.00% to 1.25% at the November meeting, citing “realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation” as the driving forces behind today's decision.
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Review of markets over October 2017

A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Evolving expectations for infrastructure investing

Infrastructure remains an attractive asset class for institutional investors given its low correlations to other asset classes, relatively high yields, and the positive outlook for investor demand.
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