The 2018 edition of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions draws on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide. This podcast series explores this year's compelling themes, taking a deep dive into issues likely to have a profound and protracted impact on the global investment landscape.

Macroeconomic assumptions: mostly stable, mostly moderate

While retiring workers and immigration restrictions put a drag on developed market labor force growth, workforces are expanding in emerging markets, bringing economic potential—without the shocks of past decades. Hear our global strategists discuss the global macroeconomics that underpin our 2018 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. (33:44 min.)


The impact of global aging

On one hand, global aging will push GDP growth and interest rates lower. On the other hand, it will reduce savings and push rates higher. Which force will prevail? Our Global Strategists weigh in and explore the investment implications. (22:26 min.)


Technology's potential impact on economic growth

How might fast-changing technology, especially workforce automation and artificial intelligence, impact productivity, long-term economic growth and capital market returns? Hear our Global Strategists within our Multi-Asset Solutions team unpack the complexities—and controversies. (24:44 min.)


The path of the U.S. dollar

Which currencies, asset classes and strategies stand to benefit long-term from a moderately overvalued U.S. dollar? Hear Dr. David Kelly, Roger Hallam and Jack Manley discuss why the dollar is likely to weaken, and how depreciation can reduce U.S. deflation risk, and may impact interest rates, commodities and emerging economies. (29:49 min.)


Long-term investment considerations for pensions

Our Global Pension Solutions experts discuss strategy ideas for pensions and DC from our 2018 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. With pensions’ formidable challenges, they discuss how to think more broadly about sources of return, including in emerging market debt, global equities and alternatives such as private markets, real estate and infrastructure. (39:42 min.)



Our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions are part of a deeply researched proprietary process that draws on in-depth quantitative and qualitative inputs from experts across J.P.Morgan Asset Management. We, and many of our clients, rely on the output as a foundation for multi-asset class investing.

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