Themes and implications from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone���s relatively better balance of payments position.
Market sentiment towards the Chinese currency has shifted significantly
We expect continued solid returns for emerging market debt (EMD) over the next six to 12 months, driven by healthy fundamentals, a supportive net issuance level and attractive valuations.
We expect the US dollar to underperform ahead of the first Federal Reserve (the Fed) interest rate cut of this cycle.
With volatility in FX markets close to all-time lows, we explore the rising risks that could see larger moves in currencies going forwards.
EURUSD should be rangebound
The potential for unilateral US currency intervention arose as a topic of research interest last year, and discussion has intensified over recent weeks.
Currency movements based onbrexit's outcome.
We explain why such an approach may not be warranted this year for investors in emerging market currencies.