As we compiled the 2018 edition of our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the world economy has enjoying its best period of synchronized growth in more than a decade.
With global recessionary risks rising, we provide a framework to help UK pensions prepare for near-term risks that could challenge the fulfillment of their sponsor covenants.
Using our 2019 Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions and our estimate of the average current pension profile, we projected forward the buyout position of the average UK pension scheme.
In this paper, we assess the potential risks associated with such a strategy by stressing capital requirements using spread-implied ratings.
Markets, economy, stocks, growth, global, fixed income, international, asset classes
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, all eyes are on dynamic, responsive funding strategies that can deliver long-term goals in a risk-aware way.
We examine how negative cash flow impacts funding, risk and return for pension plans and provide insight on how plans are likely to adapt their investment strategies in response, taking into account current capital market conditions and our 2018
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