Markets, economy, stocks, growth, global, fixed income, international, asset classes
In this paper, we assess the potential risks associated with such a strategy by stressing capital requirements using spread-implied ratings.
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
We cut the chances of recession to 25% after a thaw in the trade war and a year of rate cuts; our forecast is for sub trend growth. Favored sectors include emerging market local currency debt and higher rated short-duration securitized credit.
Reaching for yield, which we define as buying bonds with wider spreads after controlling for sector and rating impacts, is a topic that frequently arises in the life insurance industry.