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The Weekly Brief

Earnings season in the US has seen companies deliver strong results for the first quarter of the year.
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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

As yield curves flattened globally over the last few years, warnings have increased proportionately that a flat yield curve foretells economic recession.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: USD strikes back

By GFICC Investors
The US dollar has seen a powerful resurgence in recent weeks. Can its strength persist?
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Global Equity Views 2Q 2018

By Paul Quinsee
While investors have become more nervous, concerned about trade tensions and/or a monetary policy mistake, we see enough profit growth ahead to stay fully invested in equities. Regionally we like emerging markets and, on a sector basis, financials.
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Emerging Market Strategy Q2 2018: Internal strength, external risks

By George Iwanicki
Risks to an asset class come in two varieties—internal and external. In past cycles, the main risks to emerging markets came from within (overheating economies, FX peg regimes amid external deficits and hard currency-denominated sovereign debt, among others). But as we assess the prospect for EM equities, the risks today appear to be primarily external, not internal.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold amid mixed signals on the economy

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its base rate of interest unchanged at 0.5% at its meeting today.
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Review of markets over April 2018

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Fundamentals still strong but volatility risks increasing

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Emerging market (EM) fundamentals remain on a strong trajectory despite developed market (DM) growth losing some steam – both corporate and sovereign indicators show continued strengthening, especially from commodity exporters.
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Factor Views 2Q 2018

By Yazann Romahi
Amid a violent shift in volatility regimes, performance was mixed across factors. Looking ahead we see an improved opportunity set across equity, event-driven and macro factors.
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Review of markets over the first quarter of 2018

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

By Serkan Bahceci
Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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Shedding light on trade turmoil

By Dr. David Kelly
Over the past week financial markets have reacted negatively to the President’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum, mainly due to fears of a trade war that could reduce global trade.
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Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2018

By John Bilton

The growth outlook for 2018 is robust, but two-sided inflation risks have emerged. We overweight equity, with marginally less conviction, downgrade investment grade credit and close our cash underweight. Our portfolio tilt is moderately pro-risk.

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European Central Bank meeting: Subdued inflation to keep policy accommodative

By Karen Ward
The European Central Bank (ECB) met today and kept policy unchanged.
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Italian election: Let the coalition battle commence

By Maria Paola Toschi
The Italian election did not result in a majority for either a single party or coalition.
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German politics: SPD members vote for four more years of Chancellor Merkel

By Tilmann Galler
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) voted this weekend with 66% of its members in favor of forming a government with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives.
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Trade Turmoil: U.S. actions on steel and aluminum worry investors

By Hannah Anderson
The U.S. is actively pursuing protectionist trade policies, announcing tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. This latest action should not come as a surprise as it is in line with previous comments from this administration on trade.
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Review of markets over February 2018

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Asian equities: More room to run?

By Ian Hui, Tai Hui
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Ian Hui, discusses the current situation on earnings, valuations and headwinds for Asian equities and how it affects our outlook.
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Emerging markets strategy Q1 2018: Volatility returns, fundamentals stay strong

By George Iwanicki
The combination of broadening economic growth and contained inflation is driving strong earnings gains.
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Bank of England: Less willing to tolerate inflation above target

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its policy steady in February. The key interest rate was maintained at 0.5% and there were no changes to the asset purchase programme.
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February volatility: More noise than signal?

By Karen Ward
Karen Ward looks at whether recent volatility is more market noise, rather than selling signal.
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Review of markets over January 2018

By Nandini Ramakrishnan
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Italian general election: Some concern is warranted but risks to the eurozone remain low

By Maria Paola Toschi
This paper reviews the possible outcomes of the Italian election that will take place on 4 March 2018.
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Review of markets over fourth quarter 2017

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last quarter.
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The investment implications of tax reform

By Dr. David Kelly
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act should soon be signed into law. While much of the motivation for U.S. tax reform has come from a desire to cut corporate taxes, most of the net benefits will accrue to individual taxpayers.
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The investment outlook for 2018: It ain’t over till the central banks sing

By Karen Ward
The macro environment in 2017 provided fertile ground for most asset markets.
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Fed reactions following the December FOMC meeting

By Dr. David Kelly
In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the federal funds rate by 25bps to a range of 1.25% - 1.50%. The committee cited continued strength in the labor market and rising economic growth as the deciding factors in today’s announcement.
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Brexit: EU & UK reach divorce terms

By Karen Ward
Overnight the UK and EU authorities completed phase one of the Brexit negotiations.
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Review of markets over November 2017

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Monthly Market Review - November (Hong Kong traditional Chinese)

By Tai Hui
We are pleased to release this month's market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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The Bank of England increases rates

By Michael Bell
The first rate rise in a decade was widely expected by markets.
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Fed reaction following the FOMC meeting

By David Lebovitz
As expected, the FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate at a range of 1.00% to 1.25% at the November meeting, citing “realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation” as the driving forces behind today's decision.
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Review of markets over October 2017

By Nandini Ramakrishnan
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Japanese election: A sweep in the polls does not mean sweeping change for investors

Reactions from the Global Market Insights Strategy team following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party's victory in Japan's snap election.
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3Q Earnings Update: Earnings will set you free

By David Lebovitz
David Lebovtiz and Tyler Voigt discuss the third quarter US earnings season.
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Quality over quantity: Investment implications of China’s new economic policy

This paper discusses the evolution of China’s economic policy after the 19th National Party Congress and how it impacts our view on Chinese equities.
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Monthly Market Review - October (Taiwan traditional Chinese)

By Tai Hui
We are pleased to release this month's market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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Monthly Market Review - October (Hong Kong traditional Chinese)

By Tai Hui
We are pleased to release this month's market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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Review of markets over third quarter 2017

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last quarter.
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Lonely at the top: Angela Merkel and the CDU/CSU win the federal election

Despite heavy losses in the popular vote, Chancellor Angela Merkel and the conservative CDU/CSU have – as expected – won the 2017 German federal election by a comfortable margin. They now have a clear mandate to form a new coalition government in the coming weeks.
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Review of markets over August 2017

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Evolving expectations for infrastructure investing

By Serkan Bahceci
Infrastructure remains an attractive asset class for institutional investors given its low correlations to other asset classes, relatively high yields, and the positive outlook for investor demand.
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Goldilocks and the three risks

By George Iwanicki
Emerging markets are in the early phase of their recovery cycle. When comparing cycle-adjusted P/E multiples, emerging market equity ranks as the cheapest segment of the global equity market.
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The Bank of England votes to keep rates on hold… for now

By Michael Bell
The Bank of England (BoE) voted 6—2 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold at 0.25%, but indicated that rates may have to rise faster than the two rate rises the market had been anticipating over the next three years.
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Review of markets over July 2017

By Nandini Ramakrishnan
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Review of markets over the second quarter 2017

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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China A-shares finally take their place on the world stage

By Ian Hui
As we expected, MSCI has now formally decided to include China A-shares in its benchmark indices following its latest Market Classification Review, marking an important milestone for China’s international markets.
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An absolute majority for Macronomics

By Vincent Juvyns
As widely anticipated, Emmanuel Macron’s La Republique en Marche party has won an absolute majority in the French National Assembly after the second round of legislative elections on Sunday 18 June.
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Reactions following the June FOMC meeting

By Dr. David Kelly
In this bulletin, Dr. Kelly reacts to the FOMC's decision, at their latest meeting, to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.
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Review of markets over May 2017

By Nandini Ramakrishnan
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Moody's cuts its China rating

By Tai Hui
On 24 May, Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign rating to A1 from Aa3 and changed its outlook from negative to stable. This places China’s sovereign rating by Moody’s on par with Japan, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Czech Republic.
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Emerging Market Debt: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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Inflation's next phase

By Benjamin Mandel, Michael Hood
For investors, the recovery of inflation and inflation risk premia, against the backdrop of anchored inflation expectations, imply a supportive environment for risk assets. Our outlook suggests continued upward pressure on the market pricing of inflation, manifesting in higher bond yields and a widening spread between nominal and inflation-protected bonds.
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UK GDP: Continued strong growth numbers 

By Alex Dryden
With the economy growing at 2% and inflation hitting a 30-month high in December, the Bank of England is in a tough spot. In normal times, strong economic growth and higher inflation would lead to tighter monetary policy.
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Entering the reflation era

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We are entering a new investment paradigm: the era of "lower for longer" and "search for yield" has now been replaced by an era shaped by higher growth, inflation and rates.
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