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Mind the Valuation

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Broad emerging market (EM) fundamentals at both the sovereign and corporate end remain strong; however, the widening growth gap between the US and other developed markets, in addition to rising core yields and stronger US dollar, has created a challenging external environment for emerging markets.
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Factor Views 2Q 2018

By Yazann Romahi
Amid a violent shift in volatility regimes, performance was mixed across factors. Looking ahead we see an improved opportunity set across equity, event-driven and macro factors.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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2018 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

By John Bilton, Dr. David Kelly
The 2018 edition of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions draws on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide. Refined and expanded over 22 years, our in-depth, proprietary process provides 10- to 15-year risk and return projections for more than 50 strategy and asset classes.
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Goldilocks and the three risks

By George Iwanicki
Emerging markets are in the early phase of their recovery cycle. When comparing cycle-adjusted P/E multiples, emerging market equity ranks as the cheapest segment of the global equity market.
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Eye on the Market: Annual Energy Edition

By Michael Cembalest
Michael Cembalest provides an overview of key topics covered in his 2017 Energy Publication and their potential impact on global markets.
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Defining reflation, gauging momentum

By George Iwanicki
We believe that global reflation is predominantly a growth (rather than inflation) acceleration story. Emerging markets are broadly participating, and importantly the EM earnings cycle has finally turned positive. Risks to this view remain— China growth peaking, a possible "last phase" of USD strength, or a capping of positive earnings estimate revisions (given higher implied growth in current projections). Still, we are optimistic that the turn in momentum can drive additional performance for the asset class, particularly given that valuations are not yet at levels that challenge this improved momentum backdrop.
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Emerging Market Debt: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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New challenges for Emerging Markets: Risk or opportunity?

By George Iwanicki
The unexpected election of Donald Trump as U.S. President sparked dramatic change across the global investing landscape - and Emerging Markets were hardly immune.
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Entering the reflation era

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We are entering a new investment paradigm: the era of "lower for longer" and "search for yield" has now been replaced by an era shaped by higher growth, inflation and rates.
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An analysis of productivity

By Dr. David Kelly
What it is productivity, how do you analyze it and what drives it? With slower global GDP growth pushing down expected equity and fixed income market returns, our experts discuss trends and measures that could help boost global economies.
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Living on borrowed time: Understanding global debt and what it means for investing 

By Samantha Azzarello, Gabriela Santos, Hannah Anderson
Investors around the world are worried about elevated global debt levels. While there may be more pressing day-to-day market matters, debt remains a persistent underlying concern.
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On Brexit

By Michael Cembalest
On Brexit, the week before the vote. Michael Cembalest discusses his view that many articles overstate Brexit risks and consequences for the UK, and/or overstate the vote’s impact on political movements and economic malaise in the Eurozone that predate it by months and years. Here are some of his thoughts on issues that have been raised over the last few weeks.
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Investment Professionals
Dr. David Kelly
Chief Global Strategist and Head of Global Market Insights Strategy
Michael Cembalest
Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy

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