We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
The potential political, macro and credit risks insurers may want to address in 2019.
This full report is a comprehensive and detailed analysis of our 10-to 15 year asset class forecasts. US version.
EURUSD should be rangebound
This paper examines the U.S. commercial mortgage loan (CML) market and U.S. insurers’ investments in CMLs.
Since the financial crisis, for a relatively liquid investment CLOs consistently have had the highest spreads net of capital costs for US life insurers.
Why the US dollar may not be as overvalued as you think
Implications for insurance capital requirements
While the latest news provides dramatic headlines, Until the UK population shifts one way or another, it is unlikely the position of UK parliament will change.