The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
EURUSD should be rangebound
A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.
Armageddonists and the portfolio cost of fear, 2010-2019
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due.
An update from the front lines of the Trade War, with a focus on implications for investors
Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers, and discusses the challenges they face outperforming at a time of markets distorted by quantitative easing.
Michael shares his thoughts on the US China trade war, Mexico tariffs and the US immigration policy.