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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

Japan’s upcoming snap election will likely end in a victory for the ruling party, but a
small winning margin could lead to the resignation of Prime Minister Shinz┼Ź Abe,
calling into question the future of his economic reforms.
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Global Equity Views 4Q 2017

By Paul Quinsee
It remains a good environment for equity investing–although higher valuations make us more cautious. We see more upside in emerging markets, Europe & Japan vs. the U.S. Among the potential risks: the traps of investor complacency & excessive risk-taking.
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Weekly Market Recap

A one-page snapshot of market performance, statistics and trends.

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Inflation Implications

By GFICC Investors
Strong global economic growth and tight labour markets are putting pressure on wages. Are we about to see a pick up in inflation, and if so, what will be the impact on central banks and fixed income markets?
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Emerging market debt strategy : Follow the growth

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Emerging market (EM) debt continues to be in a sweet spot, supported by stagnating global inflation, supportive developed market (DM) growth pick-up, strong fundamentals and few external risks.
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Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2017

By Bob Michele

Don’t fight the Feds. For the near term, aggregate central bank balance sheet expansion remains a tailwind. With real rates compressed and asset classes fully priced, we seek relative value:  U.S. high yield, European bank capital & EM local currency debt.

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Global Asset Allocation Views 4Q 2017

By John Bilton

Asset allocation for a world of continued global growth -  Amid a synchronized pick-up in global growth and loose financial conditions, we maintain a pro-risk tilt in our asset allocation. Rates are set to rise, but only slowly, so we maintain a small underweight to duration together with a modest overweight to stocks, diversified across regions. We remain neutral on credit.

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Looking to buy on dips

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
EM countries and companies have become more resilient to external and internal shocks and we therefore see market dips and corrections as potential opportunities to buy.
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Goldilocks and the three risks

By George Iwanicki
Emerging markets are in the early phase of their recovery cycle. When comparing cycle-adjusted P/E multiples, emerging market equity ranks as the cheapest segment of the global equity market.
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3Q 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives

Introducing our third quarter 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives. A comprehensive array of market and economic trends illustrated with clear and compelling charts.
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What if May falls in June?

By Michael Bell
The market is currently assuming that the Conservatives will win a large majority and eventually deliver a relatively hard Brexit, but that the election will make it easier for them to agree to a transitional arrangement, prolonging single market access for two or three more years after March 2019.
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Asian exports: Building momentum

By Tai Hui
Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist Asia, examines the recent upturn in Asian exports and considers what this recovery implies for corporate profits and investing in Asian equities.
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Investing in Emerging Markets: Why EM and which EM?

By Gabriela Santos
Gabriela Santos discusses the improving Emerging Market conditions and how investors should consider whether they have appropriate exposure to this EM rebound.
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Macron conquers, but France remains deeply divided

By Vincent Juvyns, Stephanie Flanders
Vincent Juvyns, Global Market Strategist, gives us the latest update on the French Presidential Elections and impact this has on investors.
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Emerging Market Debt Q2 2017: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau, Derek Traynor
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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Inflation's next phase

By Benjamin Mandel, Michael Hood
For investors, the recovery of inflation and inflation risk premia, against the backdrop of anchored inflation expectations, imply a supportive environment for risk assets. Our outlook suggests continued upward pressure on the market pricing of inflation, manifesting in higher bond yields and a widening spread between nominal and inflation-protected bonds.
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Taking down the spinnaker

By Dr. David Kelly
It is time to adopt a more diversified and thoughtful approach that recognizes the importance of valuations and relies less on that most naïve of all assumptions - the prospect of wisdom from Washington.
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A better opportunity in Europe

By Dr. David Kelly
While U.S. equities still look less expensive than Treasuries and cash, they are not as attractive as they once were. Investors looking for stronger long-term returns may find a better opportunity in European stocks.
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The European political project at a crossroads?

By Vincent Juvyns, Tilmann Galler, Maria Paola Toschi
Twenty-five years after the signing of the Maastricht treaty, the European political landscape is more fragmented and polarised than ever, in a year when key member states are facing general elections.
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Pro growth or pro tection

By Dr. David Kelly
For investors, the choice Washington makes on trade will send a strong signal on whether 2017 is a year to continue to favor risk assets or take a more defensive stance.
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No Brexit plan - but a clearer destination

By Stephanie Flanders
Theresa May has given much more detail than previously on what the UK’s negotiating objectives will be when it starts on the road out of the European Union (EU).
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Entering the reflation era

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We are entering a new investment paradigm: the era of "lower for longer" and "search for yield" has now been replaced by an era shaped by higher growth, inflation and rates.
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The kindness of strangers

In the middle of December, it appears that U.S. stocks are going to outperform international stocks in both emerging markets and other developed countries for the fourth year in a row, at least when measured in U.S. dollars. Investors are always warned that past performance is not indicative of future returns. However, judging by the behavior of markets in recent weeks, this warning is falling on deaf ears, as U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar have surged ahead since the election. In short, it seems that global equity markets are pricing in everything that could go right in the U.S. and everything that could go wrong overseas.
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The investment outlook for 2017: Economic warming and political warnings

By Dr. David Kelly, David Lebovitz, Gabriela Santos

The global economy appears to be strengthening as it enters 2017, but threats to continued growth are becoming clear. Explore our 2017 investment outlook.
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