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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Defensive shift

By GFICC Investors
Given our view that the global economy is just as likely to contract as expand over the next three-to-six months, is it now time to position fixed income portfolios more defensively?
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Global Fixed Income Views 4Q19

By Bob Michele
We doubled Recession probability to 40%, lowering Above Trend Growth from 25% to 10% and Sub Trend Growth from 45% to 40%. We favor: 10- and 30-yr Treasuries, short- and intermediate-term investment grade corporates and selected securitized instruments.
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Weekly Market Recap

A one-page snapshot of market performance, statistics and trends.

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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

The ECB’s forceful stimulus package surprised investors with an open-ended approach to a relaunched QE—asset purchases of €20 billion per month will continue until inflation starts to rise. Policy rates were cut and forward guidance more tightly linked to inflation.

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Fed rate cut: What does it mean for investors?

By Alex Dryden, Jordan Jackson
At its July meeting, the U.S Federal Reserve (the Fed) cut rates for the first time since December 2008. Officially, the Fed are cutting over fears about long-term inflation. Unofficially, political pressure and trade tensions may have pushed them into a rate cut.
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Factor Views 3Q 2019

By Yazann Romahi, Garrett Norman
Factor performance was negative, on balance. Equity momentum gained, but event-driven factors were mixed and whipsawing commodities markets challenged macro factors. Looking ahead, we are most bullish about the prospects for the value factor.
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We walk the thinnest line

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We expect continued solid returns for emerging market debt (EMD) over the next six to 12 months, driven by healthy fundamentals, a supportive net issuance level and attractive valuations.
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Global Equity Views 3Q 2019

By Paul Quinsee
After a strong first half, we are a little cautious, but see no reason to move aggressively away from equity exposure. Many defensive stocks are richly priced, we see opportunity in out-of-favor value, and we continue to monitor trade tensions.
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Global Asset Allocation Views 3Q 2019

By John Bilton
Trade disputes are raising the downside risks to our forecast for slightly subtrend growth. We retain our mild underweight to stocks and prefer to take risk in carry assets like credit. Reflecting valuations, we downgrade duration to neutral.
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Lots of talk about tariffs

By Alex Dryden, David Lebovitz, Gabriela Santos
Trade was the hot topic of 2018, with the U.S. administration engaging in negotiations with many major trading partners.
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Do President Trump’s trade threats spell doom for markets?

By Jack Manley, Hannah Anderson

Market excitement about a resolution to the long-running U.S.-China trade dispute built ahead of (what were rumored to be) the final round of negotiations this week. However, comments from President Trump May 5 helped to dash that optimism.


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Fixed Income: Why all the negativity?

By Alex Dryden
A greater percentage of negative yielding bonds has reignited the hunt for yield as investors look for higher yields in riskier asset classes.
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Understanding the Fed balance sheet

By Alex Dryden
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has called a halt to the balance sheet reduction program earlier, and at a higher terminal level, than investors first anticipated.
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1Q19 Earnings: Is the party almost over?

By David Lebovitz, Tyler Voigt
Markets have bounced back nicely in 2019 after a volatile December, but this bounce has been driven almost entirely by multiple expansions.
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Brexit: A week of high drama and minimal progress

By Karen Ward
This week the House of Commons demonstrated that a clear majority of members of parliament (MPs) are not willing to leave the EU without a deal. Our view has always been that we would at some point end with a relitively soft Brexit.
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4Q18 Earnings: A fork in the road

By Tyler Voigt, David Lebovitz
Markets have bounced back nicely in 2019 after a volatile December due to concerns of rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth and geopolitical tensions.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold amid mixed signals on the economy

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its base rate of interest unchanged at 0.5% at its meeting today.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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