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Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2019

By John Bilton
Although recession risk is muted, we anticipate subtrend global growth in 2019. We slightly underweight stocks and overweight duration, taking cash back to neutral. The current environment supports carry a little more than capital growth. 
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Weekly Market Recap

A one-page snapshot of market performance, statistics and trends.

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2Q19 Global Asset Allocation Views

Recession risk is muted and high frequency data are beginning to trough. Even then, we expect slightly subtrend global growth in 2019, and although the capex cycle should come off its recent lows we do not see the kind of rebound we enjoyed in 2016. Easier U.S. policy is a boost, but eventually we expect a further one to two rate hikes.

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Brexit: A week of high drama and minimal progress

By Karen Ward
This week the House of Commons demonstrated that a clear majority of members of parliament (MPs) are not willing to leave the EU without a deal. Our view has always been that we would at some point end with a relitively soft Brexit.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: European credit ticks the boxes

By GFICC Investors
An already accommodative European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets with an even more dovish stance at its 7 March meeting—positive news for European credit.

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4Q18 Earnings: A fork in the road

By Tyler Voigt, David Lebovitz
Markets have bounced back nicely in 2019 after a volatile December due to concerns of rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth and geopolitical tensions.
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Factor Views 1Q 2019

By Yazann Romahi, Garrett Norman
Factors remained stable despite a tumultuous quarter for risk assets. Though 2018 was broadly disappointing, we see potential catalysts in place across the equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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Global Equity Views 1Q 2019

By Paul Quinsee
After a year of weak returns, we see an above-average level of opportunity across areas of global stock markets. By region our U.S. investors are the most optimistic as 2019 begins. Trade tensions and tariffs pose the main risk to equity markets.
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Global Fixed Income Views 1Q19

By Bob Michele
We cut the chances of Above Trend Growth to 50% amid political and trade uncertainties, and likely quantitative tightening and two additional rate hikes. Favored sectors: Short duration securitized credit, high yield credit, local emerging market debt.
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Connecting market and macroeconomic volatility

By Michael Hood, Grace Koo, Benjamin Mandel
In an environment of higher expected portfolio volatility and reduced cross-asset diversification, how can risk be tactically managed?
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Emerging Market Strategy Q2 2018: Internal strength, external risks

By George Iwanicki
Risks to an asset class come in two varieties—internal and external. In past cycles, the main risks to emerging markets came from within (overheating economies, FX peg regimes amid external deficits and hard currency-denominated sovereign debt, among others). But as we assess the prospect for EM equities, the risks today appear to be primarily external, not internal.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold amid mixed signals on the economy

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its base rate of interest unchanged at 0.5% at its meeting today.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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3Q 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives

Introducing our third quarter 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives. A comprehensive array of market and economic trends illustrated with clear and compelling charts.
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Emerging Market Debt: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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