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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A bumpier ride next year?

By GFICC Investors
2017 has been a year of few surprises, with the macroeconomic picture relatively unchanged. Will this persist into next year, or could 2018 see the return of some volatility?
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Global Asset Allocation Views 1Q 2018

By John Bilton

Amid strong growth and modest inflation, it’s a good environment for taking risk. But it is late cycle-no time for complacency. We take U.S. high yield down to neutral, keep a broad regional diversification in equities and a small underweight to duration.

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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

A long-standing relationship between bond yields and dividend performance broke down after the global financial crisis: Despite low interest rates, the traditionally high yielding dividend stocks offering income—consumer staples, pharmaceuticals, telecoms, utilities, energy—have lagged the market.
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Weekly Market Recap

A one-page snapshot of market performance, statistics and trends.

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Global Equity Views 4Q 2017

By Paul Quinsee
It remains a good environment for equity investing–although higher valuations make us more cautious. We see more upside in emerging markets, Europe & Japan vs. the U.S. Among the potential risks: the traps of investor complacency & excessive risk-taking.
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Emerging market debt strategy : Follow the growth

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Emerging market (EM) debt continues to be in a sweet spot, supported by stagnating global inflation, supportive developed market (DM) growth pick-up, strong fundamentals and few external risks.
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Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2017

By Bob Michele

Don’t fight the Feds. For the near term, aggregate central bank balance sheet expansion remains a tailwind. With real rates compressed and asset classes fully priced, we seek relative value:  U.S. high yield, European bank capital & EM local currency debt.

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Goldilocks and the three risks

By George Iwanicki
Emerging markets are in the early phase of their recovery cycle. When comparing cycle-adjusted P/E multiples, emerging market equity ranks as the cheapest segment of the global equity market.
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3Q 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives

Introducing our third quarter 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives. A comprehensive array of market and economic trends illustrated with clear and compelling charts.
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What if May falls in June?

By Michael Bell
The market is currently assuming that the Conservatives will win a large majority and eventually deliver a relatively hard Brexit, but that the election will make it easier for them to agree to a transitional arrangement, prolonging single market access for two or three more years after March 2019.
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Asian exports: Building momentum

By Tai Hui
Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist Asia, examines the recent upturn in Asian exports and considers what this recovery implies for corporate profits and investing in Asian equities.
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Investing in Emerging Markets: Why EM and which EM?

By Gabriela Santos
Gabriela Santos discusses the improving Emerging Market conditions and how investors should consider whether they have appropriate exposure to this EM rebound.
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Macron conquers, but France remains deeply divided

By Vincent Juvyns, Stephanie Flanders
Vincent Juvyns, Global Market Strategist, gives us the latest update on the French Presidential Elections and impact this has on investors.
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Emerging Market Debt Q2 2017: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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Inflation's next phase

By Benjamin Mandel, Michael Hood
For investors, the recovery of inflation and inflation risk premia, against the backdrop of anchored inflation expectations, imply a supportive environment for risk assets. Our outlook suggests continued upward pressure on the market pricing of inflation, manifesting in higher bond yields and a widening spread between nominal and inflation-protected bonds.
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Taking down the spinnaker

By Dr. David Kelly
It is time to adopt a more diversified and thoughtful approach that recognizes the importance of valuations and relies less on that most naïve of all assumptions - the prospect of wisdom from Washington.
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A better opportunity in Europe

By Dr. David Kelly
While U.S. equities still look less expensive than Treasuries and cash, they are not as attractive as they once were. Investors looking for stronger long-term returns may find a better opportunity in European stocks.
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The European political project at a crossroads?

By Vincent Juvyns, Tilmann Galler, Maria Paola Toschi
Twenty-five years after the signing of the Maastricht treaty, the European political landscape is more fragmented and polarised than ever, in a year when key member states are facing general elections.
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Pro growth or pro tection

By Dr. David Kelly
For investors, the choice Washington makes on trade will send a strong signal on whether 2017 is a year to continue to favor risk assets or take a more defensive stance.
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Entering the reflation era

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We are entering a new investment paradigm: the era of "lower for longer" and "search for yield" has now been replaced by an era shaped by higher growth, inflation and rates.
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