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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A matter of time

By GFICC Investors
As demand for duration sends US Treasury yields down towards 1.50%, we look at the factors that could potentially push rates through this key psychological level.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Will this time be different for Japan?

By GFICC Investors
The Bank of Japan has reacted to a persistently flat yield curve by adjusting its Rinban operations and by signalling that a potential rate cut is around the corner. But will these attempts to steepen the curve be sustainable?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Hawks increasingly scarce?

By GFICC Investors
As one central bank after the other announces cuts to interest rates, we continue to believe that buying duration will be worthwhile for investors, even with yields close to record lows.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Defensive shift

By GFICC Investors
Given our view that the global economy is just as likely to contract as expand over the next three-to-six months, is it now time to position fixed income portfolios more defensively?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Quality bias in emerging markets

By GFICC Investors
Investment grade and high yield credit in emerging markets have delivered divergent performance over the summer. Could this trend reverse, or is investor caution warranted in the high yield space?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Forget the fundamentals?

By GFICC Investors
A slew of fundamental developments over the week suggests the macroeconomic backdrop continues to deteriorate, and yet bond markets are still generating strong returns across not only safe havens but also risk assets. Can this momentum persist into September?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Quality leads the way

By GFICC Investors
Investment grade credit has been a standout performer in 2019. Given the ongoing macro uncertainty and recent spread tightening, can the rally continue?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Trading on trade

By GFICC Investors
A new trade announcement from the Trump administration has comprehensively overshadowed the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the financial crisis. What impact will the most recent round of tariffs have on the economy and on markets?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: What’s the alternative?

By GFICC Investors
Yield in Europe is increasingly hard to come by, but with the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to ease monetary policy, should investors maintain their fixed income positioning?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: EMs easing into the summer 

By GFICC Investors
Emerging market (EM) central banks are following their developed market peers with easier monetary policy. What are the implications for EM debt?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: How low can we go?

By GFICC Investors
With the European Central Bank (ECB) set to resume quantitative easing, can European high yield spreads return to their lows of the last time around?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Searching for value in emerging markets

By GFICC Investors
A relatively benign G20 summit and expectations for easier financial conditions ahead have boosted demand for emerging market debt. However, areas of value can still be found.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Easing back

By GFICC Investors
With the European Central Bank (ECB) almost certain to start quantitative easing again, what is the outlook for European credit?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: An ounce of prevention?

By GFICC Investors
Another week of dovish central bank rhetoric suggests that rate cuts are a near certainty in the US and Europe. Will easier monetary policy fulfil its objective of preventing recession, and what will be the implications for currency markets?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Time to reopen the ECB toolbox?

By GFICC Investors
With inflation stubbornly weak, the European Central Bank (ECB) is now expected to act. What would more monetary stimulus mean for investors?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: The story so far

By GFICC Investors
As we hold our latest Investment Quarterly meeting, we take a look at how 2019 has played out so far. Dovish central bank policy has propelled markets to strong returns, but trade remains a key risk.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Forecasting the Fed

By GFICC Investors
With Mexico the latest target of Washington’s tariff tactics, trade tensions are clearly escalating, not subsiding. Could this be the final straw to push the Federal Reserve to cut rates?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Unpopular populism

By GFICC Investors
The rise in support for populist parties in the European elections has done nothing for the popularity of  European risk assets. Should investors ditch Europe, or does this represent a buying opportunity?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Will rate cuts follow the sun?

By GFICC Investors
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has led the way with its recent interest rate cut. As we head towards the end of the cycle, other developed market central banks could be expected to follow.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Trading on trade wars

By GFICC Investors
Trade rhetoric is dominating news flow, weighing on risk assets. What could be the implications for US growth and inflation, and how is the outlook reflected in valuations?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Central banks recalibrate

By GFICC Investors
Central banks across the globe recalibrated their policy stance in the first week of May, making it clear that inflation is not the sole driver of their decisions. What does this suggest for the future direction of monetary policy?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Picking up China

By GFICC Investors
Despite the recent resurgence of growth worries, we maintain the view we expressed in February that Chinese growth will accelerate this year. This should be supportive for fixed income risk assets, especially if higher growth feeds through to other regions.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Time for a breather?

By GFICC Investors
Credit markets have enjoyed a strong march upwards, supported by robust technicals and a broadly positive fundamental backdrop. With issuance set to pick up, could now be the time to take some chips off the table?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Laggard of the bunch

By GFICC Investors
An improved macroeconomic backdrop continues to support hard currency emerging market (EM) debt, which has outperformed local currency EM debt this year. However, is there now room for EM currencies to take off?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Momentum in manufacturing?

By GFICC Investors
Weakness in the global economy has been almost entirely driven by the manufacturing sector. With recent data showing tentative signs of a recovery, what could be the implications for bond markets?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A longer ride

By GFICC Investors
Dovish central banks have the potential to extend the cycle—and therefore the positive environment for credit. Despite the strong performance year to date, we see opportunities for selective investors.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: All stars aligned for emerging markets?

By GFICC Investors
Dovish central banks, strong fundamentals and an improved outlook for China suggest that all stars are aligned for emerging markets. How long can the year-to-date rally continue?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: European credit ticks the boxes

By GFICC Investors
An already accommodative European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets with an even more dovish stance at its 7 March meeting—positive news for European credit.

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Can it carry on?

By GFICC Investors
The 2019 rally is underpinned by progress on the fundamental issues that rattled markets at the back end of last year. But given the strength of the rebound, how much longer can it continue?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: On the rebound?

By GFICC Investors
The year started with global macro data and quantitative valuations moving in opposite directions. Can this trend continue, or will one side give way?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Beijing at the helm

By GFICC Investors
China’s monetary and fiscal efforts to manoeuvre a soft landing and cope with pressure from increased trade tensions are beginning to pay off. What are the broader implications?

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Reading between the lines

By GFICC Investors
While weaker headline earnings growth in future quarters could unsettle investors, many underlying factors suggest corporate health remains strong. What is the full story for investment grade credit?
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