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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Searching for value in emerging markets

By GFICC Investors
A relatively benign G20 summit and expectations for easier financial conditions ahead have boosted demand for emerging market debt. However, areas of value can still be found.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Easing back

By GFICC Investors
With the European Central Bank (ECB) almost certain to start quantitative easing again, what is the outlook for European credit?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: An ounce of prevention?

By GFICC Investors
Another week of dovish central bank rhetoric suggests that rate cuts are a near certainty in the US and Europe. Will easier monetary policy fulfil its objective of preventing recession, and what will be the implications for currency markets?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Time to reopen the ECB toolbox?

By GFICC Investors
With inflation stubbornly weak, the European Central Bank (ECB) is now expected to act. What would more monetary stimulus mean for investors?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: The story so far

By GFICC Investors
As we hold our latest Investment Quarterly meeting, we take a look at how 2019 has played out so far. Dovish central bank policy has propelled markets to strong returns, but trade remains a key risk.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Forecasting the Fed

By GFICC Investors
With Mexico the latest target of Washington’s tariff tactics, trade tensions are clearly escalating, not subsiding. Could this be the final straw to push the Federal Reserve to cut rates?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Unpopular populism

By GFICC Investors
The rise in support for populist parties in the European elections has done nothing for the popularity of  European risk assets. Should investors ditch Europe, or does this represent a buying opportunity?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Will rate cuts follow the sun?

By GFICC Investors
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has led the way with its recent interest rate cut. As we head towards the end of the cycle, other developed market central banks could be expected to follow.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Trading on trade wars

By GFICC Investors
Trade rhetoric is dominating news flow, weighing on risk assets. What could be the implications for US growth and inflation, and how is the outlook reflected in valuations?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Central banks recalibrate

By GFICC Investors
Central banks across the globe recalibrated their policy stance in the first week of May, making it clear that inflation is not the sole driver of their decisions. What does this suggest for the future direction of monetary policy?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Picking up China

By GFICC Investors
Despite the recent resurgence of growth worries, we maintain the view we expressed in February that Chinese growth will accelerate this year. This should be supportive for fixed income risk assets, especially if higher growth feeds through to other regions.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Time for a breather?

By GFICC Investors
Credit markets have enjoyed a strong march upwards, supported by robust technicals and a broadly positive fundamental backdrop. With issuance set to pick up, could now be the time to take some chips off the table?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Laggard of the bunch

By GFICC Investors
An improved macroeconomic backdrop continues to support hard currency emerging market (EM) debt, which has outperformed local currency EM debt this year. However, is there now room for EM currencies to take off?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Momentum in manufacturing?

By GFICC Investors
Weakness in the global economy has been almost entirely driven by the manufacturing sector. With recent data showing tentative signs of a recovery, what could be the implications for bond markets?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A longer ride

By GFICC Investors
Dovish central banks have the potential to extend the cycle—and therefore the positive environment for credit. Despite the strong performance year to date, we see opportunities for selective investors.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: All stars aligned for emerging markets?

By GFICC Investors
Dovish central banks, strong fundamentals and an improved outlook for China suggest that all stars are aligned for emerging markets. How long can the year-to-date rally continue?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: European credit ticks the boxes

By GFICC Investors
An already accommodative European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets with an even more dovish stance at its 7 March meeting—positive news for European credit.

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Can it carry on?

By GFICC Investors
The 2019 rally is underpinned by progress on the fundamental issues that rattled markets at the back end of last year. But given the strength of the rebound, how much longer can it continue?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: On the rebound?

By GFICC Investors
The year started with global macro data and quantitative valuations moving in opposite directions. Can this trend continue, or will one side give way?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Beijing at the helm

By GFICC Investors
China’s monetary and fiscal efforts to manoeuvre a soft landing and cope with pressure from increased trade tensions are beginning to pay off. What are the broader implications?

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Reading between the lines

By GFICC Investors
While weaker headline earnings growth in future quarters could unsettle investors, many underlying factors suggest corporate health remains strong. What is the full story for investment grade credit?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: An ear on the Fed

By GFICC Investors
Dovish language from the Federal Reserve (Fed) has buoyed risk assets—but investors will need to listen closely this year in case of further shifts.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Fundamentals take the backseat

By GFICC Investors
The macro backdrop has not changed significantly in recent weeks—so what is driving the risk asset bounce?

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: The credit party isn’t over yet

By GFICC Investors
European high yield has started the year in good spirits, supported by attractive valuations, robust credit quality and positive technicals. But with global growth momentum slowing, will the credit party continue?

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A watchlist for 2019

By GFICC Investors
After a difficult period for returns in 2018, we are watching five issues that could shape markets in another potentially volatile year.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A year of transition

By GFICC Investors
2018 has been a challenging year for market returns across the board. What has driven the uncertainty, and will volatility persist in 2019?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Coming off autopilot

By GFICC Investors
With macroeconomic fears dominating the airwaves, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) may need to prepare to take a less predictable course.

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: What could spark an EM rebound?

By GFICC Investors
What is the catalyst that could translate reasonable fundamentals and attractive valuations into an emerging market (EM) debt recovery?

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Hope on the European horizon?

By GFICC Investors
Disappointing macroeconomic data and ongoing political uncertainty have weighed heavily on the euro. Does this pessimistic picture mean there’s room for a rally?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Is credit clear for take off?

By GFICC Investors
US investment grade yields are at an eight-year high, after considerable moves higher year-to-date. With midterm election uncertainty in the rear view mirror, could now be an opportune time to add some exposure?

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Magic seven

By GFICC Investors
With data coming in much stronger in the US than in the rest of the developed markets, does recent spread widening for US high yield present an entry point?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: European credit watch

By GFICC Investors
Mounting political tensions in Europe have been negative for risk assets in October, particularly equities. European credit has so far escaped relatively unscathed, but how long can this resilience persist?

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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A postcard from Bali

By GFICC Investors
Idiosyncratic stories in emerging markets are showing signs of improvement. Are tactical opportunities opening up, and what is the fundamental outlook for the sector as a whole?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Clash of dollar forces

By GFICC Investors
The strength of the US economy is pushing rates higher, and the US dollar is following suit. But can this cyclical support for the currency continue, or will the structural headwinds prevail?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: DM credit in season

By GFICC Investors
Developed market (DM) credit significantly outperformed government bonds in September. Given the risks now gathering on the horizon, is there room for the rally to continue?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A breakthrough for Bunds

By GFICC Investors
The 10-year German Bund yield broke the 0.50% threshold for the first time since May. Does this reflect a shift in the eurozone inflation regime? Keep watching the data.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A time to add risk?

By GFICC Investors
With strong global growth and a shift to tighter monetary policy continuing to make government duration look unattractive, is there value to be found in high yield, or even in emerging market debt?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Looking for security

By GFICC Investors
For investors looking to take some risk off the table, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may be an attractive option. We assess the potential risks and rewards.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: IG in focus

By GFICC Investors
Investment grade (IG) corporates have disappointed so far this year. However, with concerns over net leverage abating, valuations improving and new issue concessions increasingly attractive, should investors be looking again at the sector?  
 
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Stepping up a notch?

By GFICC Investors
With the summer lull coming to an end, will volatility remain subdued or will it pick up? What events in the coming months have the potential to disrupt fixed income markets?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A European holiday

By GFICC Investors
Despite the positive growth picture, the geopolitical worries that have rattled markets this year have persisted through the traditionally quiet summer months. European high yield looks like a pocket of value.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Think Big

By GFICC Investors
With the summer lull disrupted by Turkey and other headline risks, it’s easy to forget the big picture. Is the macro backdrop still conducive for risk assets to perform?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: The devil is in the detail

By GFICC Investors
The summer lull continues, but low headline volatility is masking some of the action under the surface.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A summer breeze

By GFICC Investors
Summer’s heat has brought a measure of calm to the news cycle, leaving technicals to drive bond markets. Is this a time to add risk, before the seasons change?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A domino of fiscal policy?

By GFICC Investors
Global growth is showing signs of strength and wage growth is slowly feeding through to inflation. However, it’s a very different picture in Japan. What impact could Japan’s stagnation have on monetary and fiscal policy?
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: EM back in vogue

By GFICC Investors
After the spring emerging market (EM) sell-off, the summer has so far seen a reversal in fortunes, with EM debt indices retracing some of their losses since the beginning of June. However, the stronger recent EM performance has seen increased divergence between regions, with trade tensions weighing on Asia in particular. With monetary conditions also tightening globally, can the rally continue?
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