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Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2019

By John Bilton
Although recession risk is muted, we anticipate subtrend global growth in 2019. We slightly underweight stocks and overweight duration, taking cash back to neutral. The current environment supports carry a little more than capital growth. 
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: European credit ticks the boxes

By GFICC Investors
An already accommodative European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets with an even more dovish stance at its 7 March meeting—positive news for European credit.

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Brexit: A week of high drama, and a modicum of progress

By Karen Ward
This paper summarizes the result of the third vote on the Brexit deal held by British Prime Minister Theresa May and its investment implications.
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European Central Bank adds to dovish central bank chorus

By Karen Ward, Ambrose Crofton
This paper, written by Karen Ward and Ambrose Crofton, examines the European Central Bank meeting outcome and its investment implications.
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Monthly Market Review - March

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month’s market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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2019 Principles for successful long-term investing

By Kerry Craig
Using select slides from the Guide to the Markets, we share key principles for successful, long-term investing.
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2019 Solving for Fixed Income

By Kerry Craig
This presentation uses select slides from the Guide to the Markets – Australia, to examine how the current environment has affected fixed income’s traditional role and the many opportunities we see to achieve its traditional objectives.
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Emerging Market Equity Views : Guarded optimism on the dollar and trade

By Richard Titherington
This paper provides an update on the performance and outlook of emerging market equities.
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Fixed income investing in the late cycle

By Alex Dryden
This paper analyses the performance of different fixed income sectors and its investment opportunities in the late cycle.
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Bank of England still constrained by Brexit uncertainty

By Ambrose Crofton
This paper addresses the latest Bank of England’s interest rates announcement and its investment implications.
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4Q18 Earnings: A fork in the road

By David Lebovitz, Tyler Voigt
This paper reviews 4Q18 U.S. earnings with performance of cyclical sectors and its investment implications.
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Monthly Market Review - February

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month’s market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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The 2019 BoJ outlook; No normalization in sight

By Yoshinori Shigemi, Shogo Maekawa
This paper examines the recent monetary policy decision of the Bank of Japan and its investment implications.
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Fed announcement

By Dr. David Kelly, Jordan Jackson
This paper addresses the main implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in January.
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Brexit: Reflections on House of Commons votes

By Karen Ward
This paper summarizes the result of votes in the UK House of Commons regarding Brexit negotiations and its investment implications.
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Re-synchronisation

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
2018 was largely a US exceptionalism story, with the US economy enjoying above- trend growth even as recoveries elsewhere faded. The resulting environment of rising core rates, tighter financial conditions and US dollar strength was unfavourable for emerging markets.
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China’s stimulus package: What to expect this time?

By Chaoping Zhu
This paper highlights the latest Chinese economy with priority of monetary policy and fiscal stimulus and its investment implications.
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Factor Views 1Q 2019

By Yazann Romahi, Garrett Norman
Factors remained stable despite a tumultuous quarter for risk assets. Though 2018 was broadly disappointing, we see potential catalysts in place across the equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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Global Equity Views 1Q 2019

By Paul Quinsee
After a year of weak returns, we see an above-average level of opportunity across areas of global stock markets. By region our U.S. investors are the most optimistic as 2019 begins. Trade tensions and tariffs pose the main risk to equity markets.
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Monthly Market Review - January

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month's market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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Global Fixed Income Views 1Q19

By Bob Michele
We cut the chances of Above Trend Growth to 50% amid political and trade uncertainties, and likely quantitative tightening and two additional rate hikes. Favored sectors: Short duration securitized credit, high yield credit, local emerging market debt.
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The Fed: One hike and a flock of dovish signals

By Dr. David Kelly
This paper, written by Dr. David P. Kelly, addresses the main implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in December.
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European Central Bank meeting: Quantitative easing is coming to an end but low rates likely to persist

By Jai Malhi
This paper, written by Jai Malhi, examines the European Central Bank meeting outcome and its investment implications.
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Honing in on China: more about companies, less about the economy

By Shumin Huang, Alexander Treves
This paper analyses the Chinese equities market and its investment opportunities.
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Monthly Market Review - December

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month's market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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Brexit: Getting there

By Karen Ward
This paper, written by Karen Ward, summarizes the progress of the Brexit negotiations and evaluates the withdrawal deal and its investment implications.
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The Year Ahead | 2019

By Kerry Craig
This paper uses 12 charts from the Guide to the Markets to spotlight the 2019 investment landscape that we believe investors should monitor to formulate an informed and rational view and guide investment decisions in 2019.
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Get invested, stay invested: Navigating volatile markets

By Samantha Azzarello, Jordan Jackson
This paper, written by Samantha M. Azzarello and Jordan Jackson, puts volatility in context relative to historic trends, and then outline five things to keep in mind when the market gets volatile.
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The investment implications of the midterms

By Dr. David Kelly
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, summarizes the results of the U.S. midterm elections and its investment implications.
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Monthly Market Review - November

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month’s market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold, waiting for a deal

By Michael Bell
This paper, written by Michael Bell, addresses the latest Bank of England’s interest rates announcement and its investment implications.
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Budget delivers tax cuts

By Michael Bell
This paper addresses the latest UK budget announcement and its investment implications.
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3Q18 Earnings: The risks begin to crystallize

By David Lebovitz
This paper, written by David M. Lebovitz and Tyler J. Voigt, reviews 3Q18 U.S. earnings with performance of cyclical sectors and its investment implications.
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Further stimulus on the way to cushion growth shocks

By Marcella Chow, Chaoping Zhu
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, addresses the 3Q China macro data and analyzes the latest government policy measures as well as their investment implications.
 
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Markets move, don't panic

By Ian Hui
This paper, written by Ian Hui, addresses the latest market pull-back and its investment implications.
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Is the selloff a signal?

By Dr. David Kelly
This paper addresses the market’s concerns due to latest market volatility and its investment implications.
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Brexit Briefing: Economic and market perspective

Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist, provides a video update on Brexit negotiations and their possible implications.
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How will the Brexit negotiations conclude?

We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively "soft" Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.
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Monthly Market Review - October

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month's market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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The Italian budget—pushing the boundaries

By Maria Paola Toschi
This paper, written by Maria Paola Toschi, addresses the latest Italian government’s budget proposal and its investment implications.
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The Fed: Raising rates and uncertainty

By Dr. David Kelly
This paper addresses the main implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in September.
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Investing beyond the late cycle

By Dr. David Kelly, Tai Hui, Kerry Craig
This month marks the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the event that transformed financial turmoil in the U.S. housing market into the global financial crisis. A decade on and investors are naturally wondering how long until the next equity bear market and what steps they can take to protect their portfolios while still trying to achieve their investment objectives.
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European Central Bank on autopilot

By Michael Bell
This paper examines the European Central Bank meeting outcome and its investment implications.
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Monthly Market Review - September

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month’s market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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What gets measured gets managed

By Matt Kelbick, Robert Manning, Donald Clark
Measuring book yield correctly
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Global Transportation Q&A

By Andrian R. Dacy
Assets in the transportation space may include but is not limited to anything from ships to trains to aircrafts, providing institutional investors with alternative sources of returns. Andy Dacy talks about how the asset class is evolving and where he currently sees the best investment opportunities.
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Should U.S. investors worry about Turkey?

By Gabriela Santos, Alex Dryden
This paper, written by Gabriela Santos and Alex Dryden, addresses the current Turkish economy with Turkish lira depreciation.
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UK Bank of England raised interest rates 25 basis points : Walking not running

By Karen Ward
This paper, written by Karen Ward, addresses the latest Bank of England’s base rate of interest announcement and its investment implications.
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Monthly Market Review – August

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month’s market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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Trade, taxes and temporary distortions: growth after the second quarter surge

By John Manley
This paper, written by John C. Manley, addresses the latest U.S. economic growth, trade situation and the impact of tax reform with investment implications.
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2Q18 earnings update: Tug of war

By David Lebovitz
This paper, written by David M. Lebovitz and Tyler J. Voigt, reviews 2Q18 U.S. earnings with performance of cyclical sectors and its investment implications.
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What is behind the recent China slowdown?

By Marcella Chow, Chaoping Zhu, Hannah Anderson
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Chaoping Zhu and Hannah Anderson, analyses the key factors that led the moderate economic slowdown in China and its investment implications.
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The Role of Core Real Assets in Liability-Aware Portfolios

By Pulkit Sharma, Michael Buchenholz
Using model portfolio analytics, this paper considers the right size, and the role an enhanced allocation to real assets can play in portfolios during various stages of the pension life cycle.
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What is a trade war, and are we in one?

By Benjamin Mandel, Hannah Anderson
This paper explores the portfolio implications of trade policy uncertainty, at a time when trade-related market shocks are becoming more frequent.
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Here we go again: U.S.-China trade tensions

By Hannah Anderson
This paper, written by Hannah Anderson, responds to the latest escalation in the U.S.-China trade dispute and discusses how investors can position themselves for rising trade tensions.
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3Q 2018 Emerging Market Debt Strategy

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
This paper, written by Pierre-Yves Bareau, analyzes the emerging market debt sectors and its strategic implications over the coming quarter.
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Brexit: Ready for the main event

By Karen Ward
This paper, written by Karen Ward, provides an update on Brexit following Prime Minister Theresa May's cabinet meeting and the subsequent resignation of David Davis, Brexit Secretary.
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The portfolio implications of trade disputes

By Benjamin Mandel, Hannah Anderson
Trade policy is of first-order importance in a more connected world, and markets have been reacting nervously to U.S. trade disputes.
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Monthly Market Review – July

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month’s market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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Trade tensions: A fight on many fronts

By David Lebovitz, Gabriela Santos, Hannah Anderson
This bulletin, written by David Lebovitz, Gabriela Santos and Hannah Anderson, addresses the current trade with clarity on which tariffs have been enacted vs. those still under discussion.
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European Central Bank meeting: Time called on the asset purchase program

By Karen Ward
This paper, written by Karen Ward, examines the European Central Bank meeting outcome and its investment implications.
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Dividends: Sidelined, but still in the game

By Ian Hui
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Marcus Yiu, addresses the relevance of high dividend strategies amid the current rising U.S. interest rate environment.
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The Fed: More hawkish, but what did you expect?

By Dr. David Kelly
This paper, written by Dr. David P. Kelly, addresses the main implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in June.
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Monthly Market Review – June

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month’s market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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A populist shift in Italy but not a systemic risk

By Maria Paola Toschi
This paper, written by Maria Paola Toschi, addresses the latest formation of populist government in Italy and its investment implications.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold amid mixed signals on the economy

By Karen Ward
This paper, written by Karen Ward, addresses the latest Bank of England’s base rate of interest announcement and its investment implications.
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Emerging Market Strategy Q2 2018: Internal strength, external risks

By George Iwanicki
Risks to an asset class come in two varieties—internal and external. In past cycles, the main risks to emerging markets came from within (overheating economies, FX peg regimes amid external deficits and hard currency-denominated sovereign debt, among others). But as we assess the prospect for EM equities, the risks today appear to be primarily external, not internal.
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Investors eye the negotiating table: Rebalancing China-U.S. trade and markets

By Hannah Anderson
This paper, written by Hannah Anderson, examines the micro and macro investment implications of ongoing China-U.S. trade tensions.
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Australian Budget 2018-2019: finding the middle ground

By Kerry Craig
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, addresses the latest announcement of Australian budget and its investment implications.
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The LIBOR spike

By Alex Dryden, Jordan Jackson
U.S. LIBOR has spiked causing some investors to fear that there is a fundamental problem with the global interest rate market. This bulletin, written by Alex Dryden and Jordan Jackson, provides clarity on what LIBOR is, what has been recently happening, and three important ways rising U.S. LIBOR could impact investors.
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2Q 2018 Emerging Market Debt Strategy

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
This paper, written by Pierre-Yves Bareau, analyzes the emerging market debt sectors and its strategic implications over the coming quarter.
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Monthly Market Review - May

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month’s market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
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1Q18 earnings update: A tailwind from taxes

By David Lebovitz
This paper, written by David M. Lebovitz and Tyler J. Voigt, reviews 1Q18 U.S. earnings with performance of cyclical sectors and its investment implications.
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PBoC to push financial market opening with a concrete timetable

By Marcella Chow
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, analyzes the recent financial market opening measures announced by Governor Yi and how they impact our view on Chinese equities.
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Monthly Market Review - April

By Kerry Craig
We are pleased to release this month’s market review, a summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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301 problems, and retaliation is one

By Hannah Anderson
This paper, written by Hannah Anderson, unpacks the latest changes in U.S. trade policy and discusses their market implications.
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A logical tilt toward tighter policy

By Dr. David Kelly
This paper, written by Dr. David P. Kelly, addresses the main implications of this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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Shedding light on trade turmoil

By Dr. David Kelly, Samantha Azzarello, David Lebovitz
Over the past week financial markets have reacted negatively to President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum, mainly due to fears of a trade war that could reduce global trade. We address a number of key questions that investors have been asking about this issue.
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Italian election: Let the coalition battle commence

By Maria Paola Toschi
This paper, written by Maria Paola Toschi, examines the impact of the Italian election outcome and its investment implications.
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European Central Bank meeting: Subdued inflation to keep policy accommodative

By Karen Ward
This paper, written by Karen Ward, examines the European Central Bank meeting outcome and its investment implications.
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Time to stress test your portfolio

A case for private core infrastructure. Now is the time for investors to prepare for the next period of financial stress, by testing their portfolios against a wide range of potential outcomes.
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The Fed in 2018: Five things to know

By Alex Dryden, John Manley
This paper, written by Alexander Dryden and John C. Manley, addresses that the composition of the Fed will be different in 2018 and will likely be moving in a more hawkish direction.
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The PBoC will not cause a hard landing in 2018

By Hannah Anderson
This paper, written by Hannah Anderson, presents global investors with a framework to use in understanding the People's Bank of China policy apparatus and discusses recent policy changes.
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The investment implications of tax reform

By Dr. David Kelly
This paper, written by David Kelly and John Manley, addresses the key elements of the U.S. tax reform and its investment implications.
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3Q 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives

Introducing our third quarter 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives. A comprehensive array of market and economic trends illustrated with clear and compelling charts.
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Australian Budget 2017-18: Worth staying up for?

By Kerry Craig
This paper addresses the Commonwealth Budget for 2017-18 and its investment implications.
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1Q 2017 earnings update: The recovery continues

By David Lebovitz
Given our view that the economy should continue to expand at a moderate pace, wage growth will gradually accelerate and interest rates will drift higher, it seems reasonable to expect that S&P 500 earnings will continue to rise over the remainder of 2017. For investors, we believe the prudent strategy is to follow the cash flows, and invest in those companies that are able to grow their earnings against the economic backdrop described previously.
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Emerging Market Debt: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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UK GDP: Continued strong growth numbers 

By Alex Dryden
With the economy growing at 2% and inflation hitting a 30-month high in December, the Bank of England is in a tough spot. In normal times, strong economic growth and higher inflation would lead to tighter monetary policy.
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