IN BRIEF

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-term Capital Market Assumptions are used by investors and advisors around the world to guide their strategic asset allocation and set realistic risk and return expectations over a 10- to 15-year time frame. The Assumptions help investors formulate solutions aligned with their specific investment needs.

This year marks the 20th anniversary of our Long-term Capital Market Assumptions— an annual assessment of the long-term outlook across all major asset classes and markets.

 

White Paper

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This full report is a comprehensive and detailed analysis of our 10-to 15-year asset class forecasts, as well as the thinking behind the numbers.

United States > Europe > Asia Pacific >

Correlation Matrices

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A compilation of the numerical assumptions themselves- laid out in an easy to reference matrix format. The matrices provide our return expectations, expected volatilities and correlation assumptions across more than 50 asset and strategy classes in over 10 base currencies.

United States > United Kingdom > Europe > Asia Pacific* >
Australia > Canada > Switzerland > Japan >
Sweden >

* For Asia Pacific, we refer to the U.S. edition.


Executive Summary

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New for 2016, this condensed version of our full report provides a synopsis of our macro and asset class assumptions, changes from previous iterations, implications for portfolio positioning, and challenges and opportunities facing investors. This report does not include information on our thematic assumptions.

United States > Europe > Asia Pacific >

Infographics: LTCMA visualized

Our asset class assumptions shown as one-page visual presentations.

Macroeconomic Assumptions Infographic
Macroeconomic Assumptions Infographic

The macroeconomic projections underlying our assumptions call for overall modest growth accompanied by generally stable inflation.

 

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Fixed Income Assumptions Infographic
Fixed Income Assumptions Infographic

Global policy rates will start to diverge as short-term rates rise in the U.S. and U.K. and easing continues in the Eurozone and Japan.

 

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Equity Assumptions Infographic
Equity Assumptions Infographic

This year's equity return assumptions again paint a slightly disappointing picture relative to history.

 

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Alternative Strategy Assumptions Infographic
Alternative Strategy Assumptions Infographic

Manager selection remains the critical determinant of success when investing in alternatives.

 

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Financial Times interview with Mike O'Brien

A video interview with the Financial Times features Mike O’Brien discussing our 2016 Long-term Capital Market Assumptions. FTfm reporter Sophia Grene highlights LTCMA’s 20 year anniversary, noting the significance of the annual release for institutional investors and consultants.

Watch the video