Following last week’s devaluation of the Chinese Renminbi and persistent weak macro data in China, we saw a sharp correction in markets today, led by China A-shares, which corrected by 8.5% in local currency. Other Asia Pacific and Emerging Market equities have also retraced sharply, and currencies have generally been weak. Following this correction, the MSCI Emerging Markets index is now trading at 1.28x (Guide to the Markets — Europe p.42, chart included below) Price to Book (P/B), and MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan is trading at 1.34x. We believe downside is limited from here.
Historical analysis (using past 20 years of data points) suggests that investors can potentially enjoy significant upside when entering the markets at such low Price to Book levels. (Guide to the Markets — Asia p.38, chart included below)
- For MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan, the 12-month average return subsequent to entering the market at 1.3x P/B is 64%
- For MSCI Emerging Markets, the 12-month average return subsequent to entering the market at 1.3x P/B is 49%
- For both indices, return is skewed towards the upside (ie. chances of upside is bigger than the downside).
In my three decades of investment experience in emerging markets, panic selling always creates opportunities for long-term managers with discipline and stock selection expertise to buy stocks that they previously thought were too expensive. We are revisiting our portfolios and looking to add to high conviction ideas whose share prices have corrected to attractive levels.
We have been investing in the EM and Asia Pacific regions for over 40 years, and we have been through multiple crises and seen markets fall 90% in some cases. As it is important to think long-term, we have maintained our commitment to those markets, and we will continue to invest in our people and teams to build our expertise regardless of short term fluctuations.
Guide to the Markets — Europe. Data as of 24 August 2015.
APAC ex-Japan and emerging markets: Evaluation analysis
The total sampling size since September 1995, data permitting, included in the analysis are 238 months for MSCI Emerging Markets and 236 months for MSCI AC Asia Pacific 3x-Japan.
Guide to the Markets — Asia 3Q 2015.
Data reflect most recently available as of 30/6/15.
For more information please contact your local J.P. Morgan representative