Michael discusses this year’s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world’s de-carbonization challenges, Germany’s energy transition and Trump’s War on Science.
Although recession risk is muted, we anticipate subtrend global growth in 2019. We slightly underweight stocks and overweight duration, taking cash back to neutral. The current environment supports carry a little more than capital growth.
Recession risk is muted and high frequency data are beginning to trough. Even then, we expect slightly subtrend global growth in 2019, and although the capex cycle should come off its recent lows we do not see the kind of rebound we enjoyed in 2016.
‘Nine things to think about in endgame investing’, ‘Can UK pension funds survive the short term to thrive in the long term?’, ‘Prescriptions for late-cycle portfolio construction’ and ‘Three ways exposure to multi-asset credit can help DB plans’.